526
FXUS62 KMHX 280633
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
233 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPANDED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. BEST WINDOW BETWEEN 4PM-12AM.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO, SMALL HAIL, FREQ LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.
2) SEASONABLE AND DRY MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, BECOMING UNSETTLED AGAIN LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN US TODAY, WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH VA AND THE CAROLINAS. A STRONG LLJ
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION, WITH PWATS ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 2". MEANWHILE,
HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE
INSTABILITY, WITH MLCAPE RISING INTO THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE.
ALOFT, A NOTABLE UPPER JET MAX IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE
INSTABILITY AXIS, SUPPORTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-45KT. WHILE
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODERATE, THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY/FORCING
COMBO IS NOTABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINATION
SUPPORTS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH MODEST SUPPORT
FROM ENSEMBLE, ANALOG, AND MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE. THE MAIN
POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS ARE TIMING AND POTENTIAL SUBSIDENCE,
WITH AREA REMAINING CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CONVECTION MAY NOT REACH ENC UNTIL AFTER SUNSET.
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GRADUALLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER, IF STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS REALIZED, IT SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION WELL PAST THE TYPICAL DIURNAL MAX IN
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY THIS TIME OF YEAR. STORM MODE COULD BE A
BIT MESSY, WITH COMBINATION OF SUPERCELLS EARLY AHEAD OF MORE
ORGANIZED MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS LATER. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
AMOUNT OF FORCING PRESENT, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A MCS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND VA DURING THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS POSING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-
LEVEL SRH AROUND 100-200M2/S2 MAY SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING
UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND TORNADOS. HOWEVER, THOSE LATTER 2
HAZARDS SHOULD BE LOWER COMPARED TO THE WIND RISK. WHILE
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, HEAVY RAIN IN A HIGH
PWAT AIRMASS COULD POSE A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT, ESP FOR AREAS
THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS (HYDE
COUNTY EAST THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS).
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED,
WITH HEAT INDICES RISING TO 100-105 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. STILL LOOKS TOO MARGINAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY WED
MORNING, WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WHILE
TROUGHING CONTINUES ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS SEASONABLE AND
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MIX BAG OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND AREAS OF FOG THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH
GREATEST PROBABILITIES ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 17. PERIODS OF
DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AT TIMES. AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY,
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS 45-65 MPH. STORMS WILL GRAD PUSH OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. SSW
WINDS WILL GUSTS 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): MUCH DRIER BEHIND THE
FROPA FOR WED INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES REBUILDS.
PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT ACROSS THE WATERS,
WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, 10-20
KT BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2-4 FT. SSW WINDS
WILL PEAK AT 15-25 KT GUSTING 20-30 KT TONIGHT, WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-7 FT. EXPANDED SCA TO THE PAMLICO SOUND AND
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 40-50 KT WINDS, SMALL HAIL,
WATERSPOUTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
OUTLOOK: MODEST NW WIND SURGE 10-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WED WITH
SEAS GRAD SUBSIDING. LIGHT TO MODERATE NW WINDS CONTINUE THU
WITH 2-4 FT SEAS. FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY LATE FRI AND FRI
NIGHT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...CQD/RJ
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...CQD
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