117
FXUS62 KMHX 282301
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
701 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DUPLIN, LENOIR,
GREENE, PITT, MARTIN COUNTIES.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION. MARINE HEADLINES (SCAS) HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED TO COVER MORE OF OUR INSIDE WATERS. CONTINGENT SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS SIMILAR.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. BEST WINDOW BETWEEN 8PM-12AM +/- AN HR OR
SO. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO, SMALL HAIL, FREQ LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
2) SEASONABLE AND DRY MID TO LATE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, BECOMING UNSETTLED AGAIN LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN US TODAY, WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH VA AND THE CAROLINAS. A STRONG LLJ
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION, WITH PWATS ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 2".
MEANWHILE, HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT
MODERATE INSTABILITY, WITH MLCAPE RISING INTO THE 1500-2500 J/KG
RANGE. MHX 18Z SOUNDING SHOWS MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 5KJ/KG, BUT
WE'VE BEEN RELATIVELY CLEAR FROM THE DEBRIS CLOUDS . ALOFT, A
NOTABLE UPPER JET MAX IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE INSTABILITY
AXIS, SUPPORTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-45KT. WHILE INSTABILITY
WILL BE MODERATE, THE SHEAR/INSTABILITY/FORCING COMBO IS NOTABLE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINATION SUPPORTS THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, WITH MODEST SUPPORT FROM ENSEMBLE, ANALOG, AND
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE. THE MAIN POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS
ARE TIMING AND POTENTIAL SUBSIDENCE, WITH AREA REMAINING CAPPED
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE
STRONGER CONVECTION WILL NOT REACH ENC UNTIL, OR AFTER, SUNSET.
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR A GRADUALLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER, IF STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS REALIZED, IT SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION WELL PAST THE TYPICAL DIURNAL MAX IN
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS THE REASON THE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1AM. THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
EASTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF ENC LATER THIS EVENING, AS TS PROBS
FOR THE OBX ZONES HAVE INCREASED A BIT. WILL SEE HOW UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS IN VA BEFORE ANY WATCH EXTENTION ATTM. STORM
MODE COULD BE A BIT MESSY, WITH COMBINATION OF SUPERCELLS EARLY
AHEAD OF MORE ORGANIZED MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS LATER. GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL AMOUNT OF FORCING PRESENT, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT
A MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND VA DURING THE
EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS POSING A RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS. LOW- LEVEL SRH AROUND 100-200M2/S2 MAY SUPPORT A FEW
ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND TORNADOS. HOWEVER, THOSE
LATTER 2 HAZARDS SHOULD BE LOWER COMPARED TO THE WIND RISK.
GIVEN THE TREND IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FA
AND THE LATER ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION, SPC HAS REMOVED THE FA
FROM THE 5% TOR THREAT, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL TO 2% ACROSS ALL
OF ENC. WHILE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, HEAVY
RAIN IN A HIGH PWAT AIRMASS COULD POSE A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT,
ESP FOR AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS (HYDE COUNTY EAST THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS), WHERE WPC IS
SUGGESTING 6HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY WED
MORNING, WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WHILE
TROUGHING CONTINUES ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS SEASONABLE AND
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR FLIGHT CATS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SW
BREEZE IN PLACE. AREA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH DECAYING SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE NW MAY
SKIRT INLAND TERMINALS THROUGH ~20Z. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WITH THE MAIN
THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 45-65 MPH. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO IFR
GROUPS TO TRY TO TIME OUT THE TSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT,
GENERALLY 00-05Z. STORMS WILL GRAD PUSH OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.
SSW WINDS WILL GUSTS 15-20 KT THIS EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD, LONG LASTING FOG SEEMS UNLIKELY
WITH AT LEAST A BREEZE PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT
THERE MAY BE BRIEF DROPS IN VIS DUE TO PATCHY FOG BEHIND THE
STORMS TONIGHT. USUAL OFFENDERS WITH THE PESSIMISTIC OUTLOOKS
THAT DON'T PAN OUT FOR THE MOST PART SUGGEST LOW LEVEL STRATUS.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING TO INCLUDE PREVAILING
CIGS FOR ANY TAF SITES, SO CONTINUE MENTION OF SCT SUB FL020
MVFR STRATUS. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS FROM STRATUS ACROSS THE
NERN TIER, MAKING PGV THE ONLY TAF SITE WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SAVE FOR SOME DIURNAL CU IN THE AFTERNOON WED
WITH NW BREEZE BECOMING MORE WNW THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): MUCH DRIER BEHIND THE
FROPA FOR WED INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES REBUILDS.
PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-15KT ACROSS COASTAL WATERS AND
PAMSOUND WITH LESS THAN 10 KT ACROSS INSIDE WATERS, WITH SEAS
2-3 FT. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BECOMING 10-20 KT BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 2-4 FT. SSW WINDS WILL PEAK AT 15-25 KT GUSTING
20-30 KT TONIGHT, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-7 FT. EXPANDED
EXISTING SCAS TO INCLUDE ALL INSIDE WATERS SAVE FOR PAMLICO
PUNGO RIVERS. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF 40-50 KT WINDS, SMALL HAIL, WATERSPOUTS, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
OUTLOOK: MODEST NW WIND SURGE 10-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WED WITH
SEAS GRAD SUBSIDING. LIGHT TO MODERATE NW WINDS CONTINUE THU
WITH 2-4 FT SEAS. FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY LATE FRI AND FRI
NIGHT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ131-137-
230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...TL/CEB
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CQD/CEB
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