983
FXUS62 KMHX 290630
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
230 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SVR THREAT GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SVR THREAT GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING.
2) SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH LATE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, BECOMING UNSETTLED AGAIN
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING, EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS DOWN
THROUGH JACKSONVILLE. ISO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, BUT
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED WITH AREA FAIRLY WORKED OVER AND
DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL CIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WHILE
TROUGHING CONTINUES ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS SEASONABLE AND
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH LATE WEEK. ISO SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, WITH TEMPO SUB-VFR AT OAJ FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH SW WINDS
BECOMING NW.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): MUCH DRIER BEHIND THE FROPA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES REBUILDS. PERIODS OF
EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW W-SW WINDS 15-25KT GUSTING 20-30KT ACROSS
COASTAL WATERS AND PAMSOUND AND 10-20 KT ACROSS INSIDE WATERS,
WITH SEAS 3-6 FT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
MORNING, WITH WINDS BECOMING W-NW 10-15 KT. SCAS CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS, BULK OF
ACTIVITY NOW BETWEEN OREGON INLET AND CAPE LOOKOUT. CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OUTLOOK: LIGHT TO MODERATE NW WINDS CONTINUE THU WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS. FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ131-135-137-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ152-154-156-158.
DISCUSSION...CQD
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...CQD
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