408
FXUS62 KMHX 291706
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
106 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH LATE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, BECOMING UNSETTLED AGAIN
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE THIS
MORNING, WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WHILE
TROUGHING CONTINUES ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS SEASONABLE AND
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH LATE WEEK. ISO SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE PENINSULA BUT
OTHERWISE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN CONVECTION FREE. GIVEN RECENT
HEAVY RAINS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LITTLE TO NO WIND,
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME BRIEF PATCHY GROUND FOG PRE-DAWN
THURSDAY DESPITE COPIOUS DRY AIR ALOFT. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY): MUCH DRIER BEHIND THE FROPA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES REBUILDS. PERIODS OF
EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW W-NW WINDS 10-20KT ACROSS COASTAL WATERS WITH
SEAS 2-5 FT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
MORNING, WITH WINDS BECOMING W-NW 10-15 KT. WINDS BECOME 10 KT
OR LESS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT.
OUTLOOK: LIGHT TO MODERATE NW WINDS CONTINUE THU WITH 2-4 FT
SEAS. FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/MS
MARINE...CQD
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