405
FXUS62 KMHX 131859
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
259 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN NC FOR
TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN MAJOR HEAT RISK IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY.
2) A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LIKELY TOMORROW, ALONG WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE
AND FLOODING RISK, WITH AID OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
3) NEXT FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAT, SHOWERS, AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE
MUCH OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO
SOUTHEASTERN VA. 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES BETWEEN 1430-1435 M
POINT TO HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S TODAY, AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
FEW METERS HIGHER TOMORROW. LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION COULD TEMPER FULL POTENTIAL INSOLATION, BUT COMBINED
WITH OPPRESSIVE TDS EXPECTED TO JUMP INTO THE MID TO
POTENTIALLY UPPER 70S, THIS WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS FEELING
LIKE 105-110 DEGREES ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF EASTERN NC. NBM SHOWS
A MODEST SIGNAL FOR WBGT VALUES OF 90 (CONSIDERED VERY HIGH)
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70, AND IT IS
HERE WHERE A POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT UPGRADE TO EXTREME HEAT WARNING
MAY BE CONSIDERED. FOR NOW, HOWEVER, AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTY OF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUD COVER, HAVE SETTLED FOR AN AREA-WIDE HEAT ADVISORY.
WE CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE ANYONE PLANNING ON SPENDING TIME
OUTDOORS TO STAY HYDRATED AND TO LIMIT EXPOSURE TO THE HEAT, IF
ABLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...OUTSIDE OF A SPOTTY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
FOCUSED ALONG SEA AND SOUND BREEZE, TODAY WILL BE DRY FOR THE
REGION. LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE STILL DEPICTS A SMALL CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEARING THE NORTHERN ZONES TONIGHT, BUT WITH
WANING INSTABILITY AND POOR UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT ODDS DO NOT
FAVOR THIS HOLDING TOGETHER INTO OUR FA. THEREFORE, DROPPED POP
MENTIONS OVERNIGHT.
ATTENTION TURNS TO TOMORROW AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTHWARD AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH REMARKABLY PERSISTENT MCS OVER THE GREAT LAKES, QUICKLY
PUSHES TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC BY MID-DAY TOMORROW ON THE
PERIPHERY OF A PERSISTENT SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE MORE SUPPORT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTIONS
REMAIN ON AVAILABLE LIFTING MECHANISMS. MOST HI-RES GUIDANCE
POINTS TO AT LEAST SEA AND SOUND BREEZES DOING THEIR USUAL WORK,
BUT THERE IS MORE DISAGREEMENT ON ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH LIKELY STEMMING FROM POTENTIAL MCV PROGRESSION
FROM EXPECTED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERANCE OF INSTABILITY OWING TO DEBRIS
FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS ALSO A FACTOR. FOR NOW, HIGH-END
CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED.
PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW IS MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS ISOLATED FLOODING
POTENTIAL, SUPPORTED BY BOTH NWP AND AI GUIDANCE. MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTS ARE DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KT AND MLCAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG,
ALONG WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY
DIURNAL, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A RISK OF SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
AS UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MIGRATES ALONG THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO APPROACH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A BRIEF LULL OVER THE WEEKEND. STILL
PLENTY OF DETAILS TO HAMMER OUT OVER 5 DAYS OUT, BUT MEDIUM-
RANGE AI NWP GUIDANCE POINTS ONCE AGAIN TO AT LEAST A MARGINAL
RISK OF STRONGER STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS, ALONG
WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL RISK AS HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS UNYIELDING.
RETURN OF HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK ALSO POINTS TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF
POTENTIAL HEAT HEADLINES.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EASTERN
NC UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE
IS KICKING UP SPOTTY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST
OF OAJ-ISO, BUT THIS THREAT WILL QUICKLY FALL OFF OVERNIGHT.
SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM DECAYING CONVECTION MAY PUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH DO NOT EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS TO HOLD TOGETHER TO MAKE DIRECT IMPACTS. SPOTTY
LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT GIVEN VERY HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
AND LIGHT, BUT NOT FULLY DECOUPLED WINDS.
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED TOMORROW AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. STRONGER STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 40 KT ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THAT COULD
BRIEFLY BUT SEVERELY LIMIT VISIBILITY.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY): VFR CONDITIONS RETURN SAT
EVENING/SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER, YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE MON/TUE WITH THE PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER FRONT.
MARINE
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
CLOSEST WE WILL GET TO SCA WILL BE TOMORROW AS SW WINDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BUT SLOW-MOVING FRONT, BOOSTING WINDS TO
10-20 KT WHEN COUPLED WITH TYPICAL THERMAL GRADIENT. AN
INFREQUENT GUST TO 25 KT IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION,
MAINLY FOR SOUNDSIDE WATERS AND COASTAL ZONES NORTH OF HATTERAS,
BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT SCA HEADLINES THIS
PACKAGE. FRONT WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASED RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS, A FEW
WHICH COULD BE STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTS OVER 35-40 KT.
A RETURN TO MORE BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. YET ANOTHER FRONT NEARS THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON
BRINGING YET ANOTHER LOW-END CHANCE AT SCA CONDITIONS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ044-079>081-
090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...MS
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