828
FXUS62 KMHX 150014
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
814 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS DECREASED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264 FOR SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID TEMPS PERSIST ACROSS ENC THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED DAILY THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE REGION,
BRINGING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING.
3) NEXT FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ENC.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHED NW TO SE ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE
NEARBY COASTAL WATERS. CONVECTION ONGOING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
HAS SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND ON RADAR AND SATELLITE RECENTLY,
LIKELY OWING TO A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY, THOUGH, AND GIVEN THE ENHANCED
CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA, IT STANDS TO REASON THAT CONVECTION MAY
BE ABLE TO SURVIVE TO THE COAST OF SE VA / NE NC, EVEN IF IN A
WEAKENED STATE. SOME GUIDANCE EVENT HINTS AT SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. FOR NOW
THIS SEEMS LESS LIKELY. THEREFORE, THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WAS LOWERED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME
HOURS, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NRN OBX.
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW,
ALTHOUGH HOW FAR SOUTH IS UNCERTAIN. THIS WILL OFFER SOME
RELATIVE RELIEF OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 70 HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING HI VALUES
AT OR EXCEEDING 105 BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY,
ENTRENCHING THE ENTIRE FA AGAIN IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S.
HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AREAWIDE FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. A NEW SET OF HEAT ADVISORIES HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
PITT AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST FOR
SATURDAY. WE CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE ANYONE PLANNING ON SPENDING
TIME OUTDOORS TO STAY HYDRATED AND TO LIMIT EXPOSURE TO THE
HEAT, IF ABLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...OVERALL PATTERN BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH A HIGHLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 2000-3000 J/KG, AMPLE MOISTURE, AND
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
FORECAST TO PROGRESS THROUGH WNW FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS FOR DAYS. ALL THAT IS LEFT, THEN, ARE SUFFICIENT LIFTING
MECHANISMS. THE REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH AND ALWAYS RELIABLE SEA
AND SOUND BREEZES ARE SUITABLE CANDIDATES FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY AN MCV CURRENTLY DRIVING DECAYING SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER WV AND VA BUT LIKELY TO REINVIGORATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
PUSH TOWARDS NC THIS EVENING.
CAM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN POOR AGREEMENT OVER TODAY'S CONVECTIVE
THREAT FOR BOTH THE 00Z AND NOW 12Z SUITES. THE HRRR AND 3KM
NAM HAVE BEEN RATHER PESSIMISTIC ON AFTERNOON COVERAGE, LIKELY
OWING TO DEPICTING CI FROM A FAR MORE OVERCAST CLOUD BANK THAN
CURRENT SATELLITE DEPICTS. THE WRF-ARW, HOWEVER, SHOWS FAR MORE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG SEA SOUND BREEZES AS WELL AS OFF THE
INLAND THERMAL TROUGH. IT WAS ALSO ONE OF THE MINORITY OF HI-RES
GUIDANCE THAT DEPICTED THIS MORNING'S EARLIER CONVECTION OVER
AREA WATERS AND THE OUTER BANKS. BECAUSE IT SEEMS TO MORE
ACCURATELY BE CAPTURING THE HIGHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
INSTABILITY WE'RE CURRENTLY OBSERVING, THE FORECAST LEANS
HEAVILY IN ITS DIRECTION FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE WATER. MORE CAMS
ARE BULLISH ON ACTIVITY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV APPROACHING
THE REGION EARLY EVENING AND DECAYING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
IF ANY SEVERE THREAT DOES DEVELOP, IT WILL BE IN THE EVENING
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING MCV-DRIVEN COMPLEX AS
SHEAR INCREASES MARGINALLY UP TO 20-25 KT, MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS
FAR NE NC AND SE VA PRESENTING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. OUTSIDE
OF THIS, A WET MICROBURST THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM
STRONGER ISO CELLS. ADDITIONALLY, WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS AN
ISOLATED FLOODING THREAT CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH AND MEANDERS OVER THE
AREA. WITH CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION EACH DAY AT LEAST PARTIALLY
RELIANT ON MESOSCALE FACTORS FROM THE DAY BEFORE, LARGER THAN
NORMAL CHANGES IN MODEL GUIDANCE CAN BE EXPECTED FROM RUN TO
RUN. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN AT
LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER STORMS AND A FLOODING
RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHEREVER ACTIVITY MANAGES TO DEVELOP.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO APPROACH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A BRIEF LULL SUNDAY. STILL PLENTY OF
DETAILS TO HAMMER OUT, BUT MEDIUM- RANGE AI NWP GUIDANCE POINTS
ONCE AGAIN TO AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK OF STRONGER STORMS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS, ALONG WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL RISK AS
HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS UNYIELDING.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TSRA ONGOING ACROSS SE VIRGINIA HAVE BEEN ON A WEAKENING TREND
RECENTLY, BUT THIS ACTIVITY MAY STILL SURVIVE TO THE COAST OF NC
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE GREATEST TSRA
RISK SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES. FOR THIS REASON,
PROB30S HAVE BEEN PULLED FROM THE TAFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. WE'LL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS, THOUGH, AS SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS OUTFLOW FROM THE ONGOING TSRA MAY BE ENOUGH
TO KICK OFF SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF
THE NIGHT.
ON SATURDAY, A FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA, PLUS BUILDING
INSTABILITY AND INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
GREATER COVERAGE OF TSRA COMPARED TO TODAY. IT'S WORTH NOTING
THAT THIS PATTERN IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE ONE, ESPECIALLY FOR TSRA
AND LOW CIG IMPACTS, AND AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY. OF NOTE, TSRA
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LIFR VIS AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS OF 40KT+.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY): MORE ISOLATED
TSRA ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE MAINLY SUN EVENING. NEXT MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
MARINE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KT
ACROSS AREA WATERS, WITH WINDS CLOSER TO 10-15 KT IN SOUNDS AND
NORTHERN WATERS. OFFSHORE, SEAS REMAIN AT 2-3 FEET. EXPECT WINDS
TODAY TO INCREASE FURTHER WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT, WITH A FEW
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, MAINLY FOR
SOUNDSIDE WATERS AND COASTAL ZONES NORTH OF HATTERAS. THE FRONT
WILL ALSO BE A FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN SOUNDS AND WATERS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS AREA WATERS TOMORROW AND STALL, BRINGING AT LEAST A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE WATER,
HIGHEST PROBABILITY NORTH OF OCRACOKE. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
MEANDER THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AND
USHERING BACK AREA-WIDE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KT. THERE IS A
LOW RISK OF SCA CONDITIONS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THIS
FEATURE. EACH DAY WILL BRING A LOW TO MODERATE RISK (20-40%) OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA WATERS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 08/14 FRIDAY
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 97/2023 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 91/2019 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 99/1918 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 93/1995 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 104/1925 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 96/2019 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ044-079-
080-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/MS
AVIATION...RM/MS
MARINE...MS
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