880
FXUS62 KMHX 150735
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
335 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REMOVED CLIMATE SECTION FROM THE AFD.
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF HWY 264 TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ENC THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS OVER THE REGION,
BRINGING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING.
3) NEXT FRONT APPROACHES EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO ENC.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER ARE UPON US WITH SEVERAL
DAYS OF HOT TEMPS AND HUMID CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ENC. THE KEY
WILL BE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE HIGH NOTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ALONG THE HWY 64 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RIDING FROM NW TO
SE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN VA INTO OUR OFFSHORE WATERS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAS REMAINED RATHER WEAK AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINING OFFSHORE.
TEMPS THIS MORNING REMAIN AROUND THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS.
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY, ALTHOUGH HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW QUICK REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. THE NAM BEING THE SLOWEST AND FURTHEST NORTH SOLUTION
BARELY GETTING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE HWY 70 CORRIDOR BY THIS
EVENING. WHILE THE HRRR AND CMC PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH
SLIGHTLY FASTER GETTING SOUTH OF THE CRYSTAL COAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OFFER SOME RELATIVE RELIEF OVER THE
WEEKEND, BUT LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 HAVE THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING HI VALUES AT OR EXCEEDING 105F
BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY. WILL NOTE COOLEST TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE
FOUND ALONG THE NOBX WHERE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ARE FORECAST
TODAY UNDER STEADY NE FLOW. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN LIFT
BACK ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SUN/MON AS A WARM FRONT,
ENTRENCHING THE ENTIRE FA AGAIN IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S. WHILE WE
LOOK TO HAVE A COLD FRONT TRACK ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO
TUE IT WONT COOL THE AREA MUCH WITH TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 90S
INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AS WELL, HI OF 105F+ WILL BE COMMON ACROSS ENC
TO VARYING DEGREES EACH DAY.
HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT STARTING AT 11AM TODAY AND
CONTINUING INTO 8PM THIS EVENING. DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WE MAY SEE AN EARLY CANCELLATION OF THIS
HEAT ADVISORY BUT THAT WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WE GET THIS AFTERNOON. WE CONTINUE TO
ENCOURAGE ANYONE PLANNING ON SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS TO STAY
HYDRATED AND TO LIMIT EXPOSURE TO THE HEAT, IF ABLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY NOTED ALONG OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES WITH SHOWER AND
TSTM ACTIVITY RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FRONT.
FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS FRONT TO DROP SOUTH TODAY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT GETS
BEFORE STALLING OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF ENC. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY,
SEVERAL BOXES ARE CHECKED TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG,
PWAT'S ABOVE 2", AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ESPECIALLY AROUND THE FRONT (CLOSER TO 25-30 KTS). THE ONE MAIN
DIFFERENCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IS WE HAVE THE FRONT AROUND
THE AREA TODAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO PROVIDE A FOCAL POINT FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS A MAINLY DRY MORNING WITH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AS THE AFTERNOON
WEARS ON AS DAILY SEA/RIVER/SOUND BREEZES INTERACT WITH THE
INCOMING FRONT. ENDED UP KEEPING SCHC TO HIGH END CHC POPS IN
THE FORECAST TODAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY POOR CAM AGREEMENT IN COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WRF NSSL AND FV3 BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WHILE THE NAM3K/HRRR BEING SLIGHTLY DRIER. ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DOES DEVELOP SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS THE
EVENING WEARS ON. THEN AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THIS
STALLED FRONT THEN LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BUT ONCE AGAIN
UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP COVERAGE REMAINS HIGH. SO THE ACTIVITY
WILL CERTAINLY BE VERY HIT OR MISS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
FOR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL BE
HEAVILY DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE FACTORS OWING TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE
PRECIP FORECAST AND THEREFORE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST EACH DAY.
STRONGEST STORMS COULD BRING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR STRONGER STORMS AND A FLOODING RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WHEREVER ACTIVITY MANAGES TO DEVELOP.
KEY MESSAGE 3... A SECOND FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS
THE AREA ON MON INTO TUE WITH THIS FRONT CURRENTLY HAVING A
HIGHER CHANCE AT SWEEPING ACROSS ALL OF ENC AND BRINGING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS
POTENTIALLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE IN NATURE. STILL SEVERAL
DETAILS TO HAMMER OUT, BUT MEDIUM- RANGE AI NWP GUIDANCE POINTS
ONCE AGAIN TO AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK OF STRONGER STORMS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS, ALONG WITH A HEAVY RAINFALL RISK AS
HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS UNYIELDING.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS ALL OF ENC THIS MORNING AS THE
AREA GENERALLY REMAINS SOUTH OF AN INCOMING WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WE DO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR COASTAL WATERS BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO REMAIN EAST OF THE AVIATION SITES FOR THE MOST PART THIS
MORNING. AS WE GET FURTHER INTO THE DAY TODAY, PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TODAY AND BECOME DRAPED ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS PLUS BUILDING INSTABILITY AND INCREASED MOISTURE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A GREATER COVERAGE OF TSRA COMPARED TO
FRIDAY SO HAVE KEPT PROB30 GROUPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AND ADJACENT AREAS.
IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THIS PATTERN IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE ONE,
ESPECIALLY FOR TSRA AND LOW CIG IMPACTS, AND AMENDMENTS ARE
LIKELY. OF NOTE, TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF LIFR VIS AND
GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS OF 40KT+. ONCE WE GET INTO TONIGHT EXPECT
ANY ONGOING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE. LOW
END CHANCE AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TO THE NORTH OF IT
FOR SOME SUB-VFR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THIS OCCURING SO DON'T HAVE MORE THAN A SCT DECK OF
LOW CLOUDS NOTED IN THE TAFS. WINDS OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): MORE ISOLATED TSRA ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SUN EVENING. SO ONCE WE GET TO SUN,
EXPECTING PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS INTO MON AFTERNOON. THEN AS
WE GET INTO MON EVENING AND TUE MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT BEFORE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TUE INTO WED.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW FAIRLY WIDESPREAD W-NW WINDS AT 5-15 KTS NORTH
OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH 5-15 KT SW-W WINDS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WITH 2-4 FT SEAS NOTED ALONG OUR COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. THE LONE EXCPETION IS ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS TO CAPE LOOKOUT WHERE CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS (25+ KTS)
HAVE REMAINED THIS MORNING GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY PINCHED GRADIENT
AND WARM GULF STREAM WATERS ALLOWING FOR SUFFICENT MIXING. AS A
RESULT HAVE ISSUED A SHORT FUSE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BETWEEN
CAPE HATTERAS AND LOOKOUT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THROUGH 11AM. AS
THE AFORMENTIONED FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES SOUTH, THE PRESSURE
GRADIAENT SHOULD RELAX SOME ALLOWING GUSTY WINDS TO EASE DOWN TO
5-15 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS WITH WINDS BECOMING NE-E NORTH OF THE
FRONT AND AND REMAINING SW'RLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT TODAY. AS WE
GET INTO TONIGHT ALL WATERS SEE NE-E WINDS AT 5-15 KTS AS FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF OUR WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
AROUND 2-4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE A
FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUNDS AND WATERS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): THE FRONT WILL THEN MEANDER
NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND USHER BACK AREA-WIDE SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10-20 KT. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF SCA CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. A SECOND COLD FRONT THEN QUICKLY
TRACKS ACROSS OUR WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE ONCE AGAIN SHIFTING
WINDS TO A NE-E DIRECTION TUE INTO WED BUT ENDING ANY POTENTIAL
SCA THREAT. EACH DAY WILL BRING A LOW TO MODERATE RISK (20-40%)
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ044-079-080-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RCF
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