422
FXUS62 KMHX 151856
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
256 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST HEAT INDICES TRENDING HIGHER FOR MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID TEMPS PERSIST ACROSS ENC THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK, PEAKING ON MONDAY.
2) SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL POSE A MARGINAL
RISK FOR STRONG STORMS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH MONDAY,
BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS CLEARED ENC AND NOW SITS OFFSHORE, LEAVING
OUR AREA IN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE FRONT WILL HELP NUDGE
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, FELT MOST
ACROSS THE ALBEMARLE PENINSULA AND NORTHERN OUTER BANKS WITH
RELATIVELY COOL ONSHORE NW FLOW. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST,
HOWEVER, WILL SEE LITTLE RELIEF AS TEMPS ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK
INTO THE MID 90S AND TDS REMAIN UNRELENTING IN THE UPPER 70S.
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES SOUTH OF US264 INTO
THIS EVENING.
BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY, BUT
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER TOMORROW WITH LIKELY
LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND POTENTIALLY EARLIER START OF
CONVECTION. NO HEAT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH
SPOTS FROM LENOIR COUNTY SOUTHWARD MAY GET CLOSE TO 105 FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUS HEAT REMAINS ON
MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND RE- ENTRENCHES ENC IN A VERY
HOT AIRMASS WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING
ABOVE 1430M AND WIDESPREAD TDS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THIS
COULD NUDGE MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 110 IN MANY AREAS. WE
CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE ANYONE PLANNING ON SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS
TO STAY HYDRATED AND TO LIMIT EXPOSURE TO THE HEAT, IF ABLE.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS NC ON MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE COAST. LIKE THIS WEEKEND, SW
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN HOT AND HUMID WHILE ALBEMARLE AND
VICINITY SEE SOME MODEST RELIEF. A MORE WIDESPREAD COOLDOWN,
HOWEVER, IS ON THE HORIZON LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER COLD
FRONT DIVES OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ENVIRONMENT TODAY ONCE AGAIN APPEARS AT LEAST
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
ENC SITS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE STUBBORNLY SITTING
OVER THE GULF STATES. COVERAGE TODAY WILL BE A TOUCH BETTER
THAN YESTERDAY, AIDED BY SEA AND SOUND BREEZES AS WELL AS
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS MOST FAVORS STORM DEVELOPMENT, AT LEAST
INITIALLY, ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTLINE. LATER IN THE DAY,
UPSTREAM CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NC PIEDMONT AND
SOUTHWEST VA WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY GRAZE
THE COASTAL PLAIN IN THE EVENING HOURS, ALTHOUGH CAM CONSENSUS
MOST FAVORS AREAS WEST OF I-95.
PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT, LIKE YESTERDAY, IS ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER STORMS WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 20 KT
BUT AMPLE INSTABILITY FORECAST TO REACH 2500-3000 J/KG. AN
ISOLATED WET MICROBURST IS POSSIBLE, BUT A GREATER RISK FOR
STRONGER WINDS WOULD BE TIED TO MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES LIKELY TO OUR WEST. FLOODING THREAT TODAY IS MORE
READILY APPARENT - ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE,
IMPRESSIVELY HIGH PWATS AND SUFFICIENT SATURATION UP TO 500 MB
POINT TO HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS EASILY CAPABLE OF RAINFALL
RATES EXCEEDING 2"/HR. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY FOR URBAN LOCATIONS OR THOSE WITH KNOWN
SUSCEPTIBILITIES.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY, SHIFTING
MORE ROBUST CONVECTION THREAT CLOSER TO VA BUT STILL LEAVING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY, AS WELL AS SOME
UPSTREAM THREATS ONCE AGAIN MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE AREA IN
THE EVENING. EVOLUTION WILL BE HEAVILY DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE
FACTORS OWING TO CONTINUED HIGHER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY OWING TO LARGE SPREAD IN CAMS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO APPROACH ON MONDAY. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF DETAILS TO HAMMER OUT BUT BOTH AI AND
TRUSTED DETERMINISTIC NWP GUIDANCE POINT TO AT LEAST ANOTHER
MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. IT WILL STALL ALONG OUR COAST NEXT WEEK, KEEPING OUR
AREA IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT SITS SOUTH
OF TERMINALS. MAIN THREAT FOR AVIATORS WILL BE CONVECTION,
FOCUSED INITIALLY SOUTH OF EWN ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND COUPLED WITH THE DIURNAL SEABREEZE. LATER IN THE
EVENING, BANDS OF CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NC
PIEDMONT MAY GRAZE INNER COASTAL PLAIN TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z.
STRONGER CONVECTION COULD BRING WINDS OF 40+ KT AS WELL AS
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL BRIEFLY LIMITING VISIBILITY.
LINGERING SHOWERS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH POST-FRONTAL LOW
ODDS HAVE INCREASED FOR LOW STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY FOG, HIGHEST
CHANCES WEST OF A LINE FROM OCW-EWN. DID LOWER FORECAST CIGS
FROM PREVIOUS CYCLE WITH GLAMP SHOWING INCREASINGLY BULLISH
PROBABILITIES NORTH OF 50%. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO VFR SUN MORNING, BUT MAY HOLD AT MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): MORE ISOLATED TSRA ACTIVITY
IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SUN EVENING. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY. THEN AS WE GET INTO MON
EVENING AND TUE MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SUB- VFR CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN TUE INTO WED.
MARINE
COLD FRONT HAS LARGELY CLEARED AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOUND AND SEA BREEZES BECOMING DOMINANT. WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST AT 10-15 KT EXCEPT ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST
WHERE SEA BREEZE HAS TURNED WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. SEAS ARE
AROUND 2 FEET WITH A 6 SEC WIND WAVE, ALTHOUGH SOME UNDERLYING
12-13 SECOND SWELL LINGERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY ACROSS ONSLOW BAY WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES FARTHER NORTH.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): MARINE FORECAST, IN TERMS
OF WINDS AND SEAS, IS LARGELY BENIGN WITH THE NEXT FOCUS FOR SCA
ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES AREA WATERS. THIS,
COUPLED WITH A HEALTHY THERMAL GRADIENT, WILL LIKELY BOOST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BACK TO 15-20 KT WITH SOME SPOTTY GUSTS TO
25 KT. AT THIS TIME, COVERAGE OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS TOO
LIMITED TO NEED A HEADLINE BUT FORECAST TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED. BEYOND THIS, NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SCA IS LATE NEXT
WEEK. EACH DAY WILL BRING A LOW TO MODERATE RISK (20-40%) OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA WATERS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 08/17 (MONDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 96 / 1988 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 93 / 2021 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 99 / 1988 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 93 / 1984 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 101 / 1938 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 97 / 1995 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ044-079-080-
090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...MS
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