989
FXUS62 KMHX 160117
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
917 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST HEAT INDICES TRENDING HIGHER FOR MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID TEMPS PERSIST ACROSS ENC THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK, PEAKING ON MONDAY.
2) SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL POSE A MARGINAL
RISK FOR STRONG STORMS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH MONDAY,
BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CRYSTAL COAST THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY FRONT (POSSIBLY AN ELEVATED 850MB FRONT),
IS PROGRESSING SW ACROSS ENC. BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH
FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER
TOMORROW WITH LIKELY LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND
POTENTIALLY EARLIER START OF CONVECTION. NO HEAT ADVISORIES
ISSUED FOR TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH SPOTS FROM LENOIR COUNTY SOUTHWARD
MAY GET CLOSE TO 105 FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
DANGEROUS HEAT REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND
RE- ENTRENCHES ENC IN A VERY HOT AIRMASS WITH 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING ABOVE 1430M AND WIDESPREAD TDS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THIS COULD NUDGE MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 110 IN MANY AREAS. WE CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE ANYONE
PLANNING ON SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS TO STAY HYDRATED AND TO LIMIT
EXPOSURE TO THE HEAT, IF ABLE.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS NC ON MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE COAST. LIKE THIS WEEKEND, SW
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN HOT AND HUMID WHILE ALBEMARLE AND
VICINITY SEE SOME MODEST RELIEF. A MORE WIDESPREAD COOLDOWN,
HOWEVER, IS ON THE HORIZON LATE NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER COLD
FRONT DIVES OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STALLED
SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OF THE CRYSTAL COAST THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY FRONT (POSSIBLY AN ELEVATED 850MB FRONT),
IS PROGRESSING SW ACROSS ENC. IT'S THIS BOUNDARY WHERE SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION IS ONGOING, MAINLY FROM CARTERET COUNTY
OFFSHORE. UNTIL THE BOUNDARY CLEARS THE AREA, THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A RISK OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
ALONG, AND JUST INLAND OF, THE CRYSTAL COAST. HOWEVER, THE RISK
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY, SHIFTING
MORE ROBUST CONVECTION THREAT CLOSER TO VA BUT STILL LEAVING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY, AS WELL AS SOME
UPSTREAM THREATS ONCE AGAIN MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE AREA IN
THE EVENING. EVOLUTION WILL BE HEAVILY DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE
FACTORS OWING TO CONTINUED HIGHER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY OWING TO LARGE SPREAD IN CAMS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO APPROACH ON MONDAY. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF DETAILS TO HAMMER OUT BUT BOTH AI AND
TRUSTED DETERMINISTIC NWP GUIDANCE POINT TO AT LEAST ANOTHER
MARGINAL RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. IT WILL STALL ALONG OUR COAST NEXT WEEK, KEEPING OUR
AREA IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TSRA FROM EARLIER ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING, WITH THE FOCUS
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THAT SAID, THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SW
THROUGH THE AREA, AND UNTIL IT CLEARS THROUGH, A LOW RISK OF A
FEW SHRA AND POSSIBLY A TSRA WILL REMAIN. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY, GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME LOW CIG POTENTIAL.
THE STRONGEST SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL NC, BUT
THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK THAT WE HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY A SCT
LOW CLOUD LAYER IN THE TAFS TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF THIS RISK INCREASES. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE MAY ALSO BE A RISK OF REDUCED VIS IN MIFG/BR.
ON SUNDAY, A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. GUIDANCE DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES BACK NORTH,
AND THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE WHERE THE GREATEST TSRA RISK IS FOCUSED. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT, TSRA WERE LEFT OUT
OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. WHERE TSRA OCCUR, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF LIFR VIS, SMALL
HAIL, AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS OF 20-40KT+.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): MORE ISOLATED TSRA
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE SUN EVENING. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY. THEN AS WE GET INTO MON EVENING
AND TUE MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SUB- VFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE ON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
TUE INTO WED.
MARINE
COLD FRONT HAS LARGELY CLEARED AREA WATERS THIS EVENING AND WINDS
ARE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 5-15 KT. SEAS ARE AROUND
2-3 FEET WITH A 5 SEC WIND WAVE, ALTHOUGH SOME UNDERLYING 12-13
SECOND SWELL LINGERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS
ONSLOW BAY WATERS THIS EVENING, WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES
FARTHER NORTH.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): MARINE FORECAST, IN TERMS
OF WINDS AND SEAS, IS LARGELY BENIGN WITH THE NEXT FOCUS FOR SCA
ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES AREA WATERS. THIS,
COUPLED WITH A HEALTHY THERMAL GRADIENT, WILL LIKELY BOOST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BACK TO 15-20 KT WITH SOME SPOTTY GUSTS TO
25 KT. AT THIS TIME, COVERAGE OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS TOO
LIMITED TO NEED A HEADLINE BUT FORECAST TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED. BEYOND THIS, NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SCA IS LATE NEXT
WEEK. EACH DAY WILL BRING A LOW TO MODERATE RISK (20-40%) OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA WATERS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 08/17 (MONDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 96 / 1988 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 93 / 2021 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 99 / 1988 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 93 / 1984 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 101 / 1938 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 97 / 1995 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/MS
AVIATION...RM/MS
MARINE...RM/MS
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