024
FXUS62 KMHX 161021
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
621 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID TEMPS PERSIST ACROSS ENC INTO LATE IN THE WEEK,
PEAKING ON MONDAY.
2) SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL POSE A MARGINAL
RISK FOR STRONG STORMS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
3) CLIMO PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD UNSETTLED WEATHER TO ENC.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT CURRENTLY REMAINS
JUST SOUTH OF THE CRYSTAL COAST THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW STRATUS NOTED
ACROSS ENC MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT. THIS
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH TO START OUR DAY. HOWEVER, IT
IS THEN FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT N AND E LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC TRACKS ESE'WARDS AND PULLS THE FRONT NORTHWARDS.
AS A RESULT, TEMPS REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING AND
POTENTIALLY EARLIER START OF CONVECTION MUTING TEMPS TODAY.
GIVEN THIS, NO HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TODAY, ALTHOUGH
SPOTS FROM LENOIR COUNTY SOUTHWARD MAY GET CLOSE TO 105 FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DANGEROUS HEAT REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND RE-ENTRENCHES ENC IN A VERY HOT AIRMASS
WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING ABOVE 1435M AND
WIDESPREAD TDS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THIS COULD NUDGE MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 110F IN MANY AREAS. ONE CAVEAT TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS WEEKEND WHERE
WE HAD HIGHER MIXING RATIOS, LOWER MIXING RATIOS LOOK TO ADVECT
IN FROM THE WEST UNDER ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW SO WE COULD MIX OUT
SLIGHTLY MORE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED AND THEREFORE HAVE
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS THAN FORECAST. EVEN IF THIS WERE TO
OCCUR, MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS TO GET SOLIDLY INTO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA SO STILL EXPECTING HEAT HEADLINES JUST DEPENDS ON
WHICH ONES AT THIS POINT. WE CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE ANYONE
PLANNING ON SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS TO STAY HYDRATED AND TO LIMIT
EXPOSURE TO THE HEAT, IF ABLE.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUICKLY PUSHES ACROSS NC MONDAY
EVENING BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE COAST. LIKE THIS WEEKEND, SW
COUNTIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN HOT AND HUMID WHILE ALBEMARLE AND
VICINITY SEE SOME MODEST RELIEF. A MORE WIDESPREAD COOLDOWN,
HOWEVER, IS ON THE HORIZON LATE WEEK AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT
DIVES OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONT CURRENTLY REMAINS
JUST SOUTH OF THE CRYSTAL COAST THIS MORNING PER THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED LOW STRATUS NOTED
ACROSS ENC MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT. THIS
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH TO START OUR DAY. HOWEVER, IT
IS THEN FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT N AND E LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC TRACKS ESE'WARDS AND PULLS THE FRONT NORTHWARDS.
THIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION THREAT CLOSER
TO VA BUT STILL LEAVING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY, AS WELL AS SOME UPSTREAM THREATS ONCE AGAIN MAKING
THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE AREA IN THE EVENING. EVOLUTION WILL BE
HEAVILY DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE FACTORS OWING TO CONTINUED HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY OWING TO LARGE SPREAD IN CAMS.
EITHER WAY THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS
ACROSS ENC WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS BRINGING A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
TO PORTIONS OF ENC TODAY.
A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST ON MONDAY
EVENING. OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS ENC RESULTING IN 1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE
BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR. HOWEVER, WITH PWATS REMAINING AT
OR ABOVE 2" CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO TO IMPACT THE AREA BRINGING A DAMAGING
WIND, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT. THERE COULD BE
TWO FOCUSES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY. THE FIRST WILL
BE THE SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL BE PINNED NEAR THE COAST GIVEN
W'RLY SURFACE FLOW WHICH COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO. A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS COMES FROM THE INCOMING
FRONT MON EVENING AS STORMS UPSTREAM TRACK E'WARDS INTO THE
AREA IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A BRIEF RETURN TO MORE CLIMO POPS IS FORECAST
TUE AND WED WITH THE SEABREEZE AND STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE BEING
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER AS WE GET
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT LOOKS
TO SWEEP E ACROSS NC. THIS WILL NOT ONLY LIKELY END OUR STRETCH
OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BUT IT WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THIS IS, THERE ARE STILL
SEVERAL DETAILS TO HAMMER OUT BUT WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS IN
THE FORECAST FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FRONT IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIFG AND LOW STRATUS IS NOTED ACROSS ENC
THIS MORNING. WHILE NONE OF IT IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING ANY OF THE
TAF SITES, HAVE SEEN SOME RECENT OBSERVATIONS AROUND KDPL AND
KETC OF MVFR/IFR VIS/CEILINGS THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY AND MINIMAL IMPACT, HAVE A VFR TAF THIS
MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES. AS WE GET FURTHER INTO TODAY, STALLED
FRONT OFFSHORE WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. GUIDANCE
DIFFERS ON HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES BACK NORTH, AND THIS WILL BE
IMPORTANT AS THE LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WHERE THE
GREATEST TSRA RISK IS FOCUSED. AS A RESULT, HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
PROB30 GROUPS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS THREAT. WHERE TSRA OCCURS, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE A RISK OF LIFR VIS, SMALL
HAIL, AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS OF 20-40KT+. AFTER SUNSET ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH WITH YET ANOTHER RISK FOR SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND VIS
NOTED ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OCCURED. HOWEVER, GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAVE NOT INCLUDED A LOWER CLOUD DECK OR LOWER VIS IN THE TAFS
JUST YET.
OUTLOOK (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY): MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. THEN AS WE GET INTO MON EVENING AND
TUE A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR SUB- VFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN TUE INTO WED. YET ANOTHER FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK ONCE AGAIN BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM RISKS AS WELL AS INCREASING RISKS FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURING ACROSS
OUR OUTER WATERS (20+ NM) THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THIS,
5-10 KT NE-E WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS ARE NOTED ACROSS OUR WATERS
THIS MORNING AS A STALLED FRONT REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTH.
CONTINUED BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED FRONT EVENTUALLY LIFTS N TODAY TURNING WINDS TO THE
SE, THEN S, AND THEN SW THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOSER TO 10-20 KTS TONIGHT AS
WELL. SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE EXPECT AT LEAST A LOW END THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS OUR WATERS
WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
OUTLOOK (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY): THE NEXT FOCUS FOR SCA
CONDITIONS LOOKS TO BE ON MONDAY EVENING INTO TUE MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AREA WATERS. THIS, COUPLED WITH A
HEALTHY THERMAL GRADIENT, WILL LIKELY BOOST SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
BACK TO 15-20 KT WITH SOME SPOTTY GUSTS TO 25 KT. AT THIS TIME,
COVERAGE OF SCA CONDITIONS APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO NEED A
HEADLINE BUT FORECAST TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. BEYOND THIS,
NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SCA IS LATE NEXT WEEK. EACH DAY WILL BRING A
LOW TO MODERATE RISK (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREA WATERS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 08/17 (MONDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 96 / 1988 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 93 / 2021 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 99 / 1988 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 93 / 1984 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 101 / 1938 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 97 / 1995 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MS/RCF
AVIATION...MS/RCF
MARINE...MS/RCF
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