640
FXUS62 KMHX 180252
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1052 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RECORD FOR MAXT FOR THIS DATE (MON 17AUG) HAS BEEN SET AT NEW
BERN. SEE REREWN FOR MORE INFO.
AVIATION DISCO UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID TEMPS PERSIST ACROSS ENC INTO LATE IN THE
WEEK.
2) SUBDUED RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A MODEST
UPTICK IN RISK OVERNIGHT. CLIMO PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TOMORROW
AND WEDNESDAY.
3) NEXT FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK,
USHERING IN A PATTERN CHANGE OF RELATIVELY COOLER BUT CONTINUED
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A
SURFACE TROUGH STRADDLING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINA COASTS
WITH A MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO PUSH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND, THE MIDWEST AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OUR AREA
AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS REMAINS IN THE GRIP OF A VERY
HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS, WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 90S AND
TDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, HOVERING AROUND 80. THIS HAS
ALREADY YIELDED MULTIPLE READINGS OF HI VALUES BETWEEN 110-115
ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL LOCALES. TODAY'S HEADLINES REMAIN
UNCHANGED AND IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM LT.
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL NOT ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING, LEAVING THE REGION ONCE AGAIN IN
THE SAME AIRMASS. UNLIKE TODAY WHERE THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO
RELIEF PROVIDED BY CONVECTION, TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVE DAY AND MANY AREAS COULD BE CONVECTIVELY COOLED BY
EVENING. STILL, AT LEAST SOME PERIOD OF HI OF 110-115 IS LIKELY
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE WITH WIDESPREAD 105-110 VALUES
ELSEWHERE. A NEW SET OF EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AREAWIDE FOR TOMORROW.
FRONT WILL BE STALLED ALONG THE COAST WED AND INTO THURSDAY.
COOLER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MOST OPPRESSIVE
HEAT AT BAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS AND ALBEMARLE PENINSULA, BUT
AREAS SOUTH OF US 264, AND PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND WEST OF US 70,
WILL LIKELY STILL SEE AN ELEVATED RISK OF HI BETWEEN 105-110
EACH AFTERNOON. A MORE WIDESPREAD COOLDOWN IS LIKELY FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT NEARS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALOFT, NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY STRONGLY HINTS THIS, WHICH HAS SHOWN AT
BEST ONLY SLIGHTLY AGITATED CU FIELDS ALONG PINNED SOUND AND SEA
BREEZES. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ONE OR TWO SHOWERS OR
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, BUT OPTED TO REMOVE MENTIONABLE POPS OUT OF
THE FORECAST. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SCATTERED CONVECTION UPSTREAM GRADUALLY ORGANIZES INTO CLUSTERS
AND PUSH EASTWARD AHEAD OF A MORE ROBUST S/W PUSHING INTO SW
VIRGINIA PER RAP MESOANALYSIS. THERE WILL BE A MODEST UPTICK IN
FORECAST EFFECTIVE SHEAR AS THIS ACTIVITY APPROACHES ENC (UP TO
25-30 KT), BUT QUICK RETURN OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL PROVE
HOSTILE TO ITS SUSTAINMENT. CAMS SUGGEST DECAYING ACTIVITY
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING AREAS FROM NEW BERN NORTH, AND OPTED TO
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DETERMINISTIC AND AI NWP GUIDANCE DO NOT
SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT.
CLIMO POPS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FINALLY NEARS THE AREA AND STALLS, PROVIDING AN EXTRA FOCAL
POINT FOR LIFT. FOR TUESDAY, DESPITE POOR SHEAR HIGH PWATS
EXCEEDING 2.25" EXPECTED AND A STRONGER CELL COULD POSE AN
ISOLATED WET MICROBURST THREAT. OTHERWISE, OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
IS LOW - LESS THAN 5%.
KEY MESSAGE 3...STRONGER FRONT IS LIKELY TO APPROACH THE REGION
AND STALL LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS PART OF A PATTERN
CHANGE CONUS-WIDE, SERVING TO BOTH OFFER A REPRIEVE FROM
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS SHEAR INCREASES ALONGSIDE THE BOUNDARY WITH
STRONGER TROUGHING. GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THIS IS, THERE ARE STILL
SEVERAL DETAILS TO HAMMER OUT BUT WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS IN
THE FORECAST FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FRONT IN THE COMING DAYS. NCAR MEDIUM-RANGE AI NWP GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AT LEAST MODEST PROBABILITIES (AROUND 5%)
OF AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR FLIGHT CATS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
THE W AND SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME REINVIGORATION OF PRECIP
ACTIVITY AS THE TROUGH ENTERS THE COASTAL PLAIN, THOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF IT SHOULD ELEVATED. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW END
CHANCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS NERN RTES BRINGING SUBVFR OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE CONTINUED PROB30 MENTION FOR PGV.
DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN A LOW STRATUS AND FOG RISK AS IT WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION EVOLUTION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH CALM WINDS AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PATCHY INSTANCES OF PATCHY FOG
EARLY TUES AM. BEST CHANCES FOR THIS WOULD BE SWERN AREAS, WITH
OAJ BEING ONLY TAF SITE POSSIBLY AFFECTED, BUT LACK OF PRECIP
HERE THROUGH THE LAST 24H DOESN'T HELP BUILD ANY CONFIDENCE FOR
WHAT LITTLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS POTENTIAL.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): EXPECTING PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURS. THE LONE EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE UNDER
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEABREEZE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG OR LOW
STRATUS CONCERNS EACH NIGHT EITHER BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED IN CASE THE THREAT INCREASES IN THE COMING DAYS. YET
ANOTHER FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM RISKS AS WELL AS
INCREASING RISKS FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
WINDS EASE TONIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
AND WEST TOMORROW. S TO SW WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR ONSLOW AND
RALEIGH BAYS, BUT NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY AS BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD.
OVERALL, WINDS SHOULD NOT PUSH SEAS BEYOND THE 3-4 FT RANGE.
WATERS REMAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM FREE TODAY, BUT WILL
LIKELY SEE AN UPTICK OF ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS, AS MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY
ORIGINATING IN WESTERN NC MAKES ITS WAY EAST. MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR DEVELOP IS AFTER 06Z TUES.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY): BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS
PERSIST INTO WED WITH EYES TO NEXT POTENTIAL SCA LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EACH DAY WILL BRING A LOW TO
MODERATE RISK (20-40%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA
WATERS, WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 08/17 (MONDAY)
LOCATION TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN 96 / 1988 (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS 93 / 2021 (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE 99 / 1988 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY 93 / 1984 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON 101 / 1938 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE 97 / 1995 (NCA ASOS)
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ029-
044>046-079-080-091-092-193-203>205.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ047-
081-090-094-194>196-198-199.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MS
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...MS
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