590
FXUS62 KMHX 181038
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
638 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID TEMPS PERSIST ACROSS ENC INTO FRI.
2) ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEABREEZE THROUGH THURSDAY.
3) NEXT FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, USHERING IN A
PATTERN CHANGE OF RELATIVELY COOLER BUT CONTINUED UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS MORNING
WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO THE WEST NEAR
THE APPALACHIANS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO GET TO
ENC TODAY BUT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES WHICH WON'T
PRODUCE MUCH CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, BUT MAY HELP TO FOCUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE SEABREEZE. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WITH A LACK OF AIRMASS
CHANGE OUR AREA AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS REMAINS IN
THE GRIP OF A VERY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS.
IT IS WARM AND MUGGY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO LOW
80S. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S INLAND
WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OBX THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHERE THERE WAS LITTLE TO
NO RELIEF PROVIDED BY CONVECTION, TODAY WILL BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVE DAY AND MANY AREAS COULD BE CONVECTIVELY COOLED BY THIS
EVENING. STILL, AT LEAST SOME PERIOD OF HI OF 110-115F IS
LIKELY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE WITH WIDESPREAD 105-110F
VALUES ELSEWHERE. AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT PREVIOUSLY INHERITED
EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES IN PLACE TODAY
STARTING AT 11AM AND CONTINUING INTO 8PM TONIGHT.
AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE COAST. WHILE COOLER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MOST OPPRESSIVE HEAT AT BAY FROM THE
OUTER BANKS TO ALBEMARLE PENINSULA, AREAS SOUTH OF US 264, AND
PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND WEST OF US 70, WILL LIKELY STILL SEE AN
ELEVATED RISK OF HI BETWEEN 105-110 EACH AFTERNOON. A MORE
WIDESPREAD COOLDOWN IS LIKELY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT NEARS.
KEY MESSAGE 2... CURRENTLY HAVE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH ENC THIS MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING
EAST TOWARDS THE COAST. WE DO HAVE SOME ONGOING SHOWER AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOTED ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 264
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ALSO PUSHING EAST. OUTSIDE OF A
STRAY GUST TO 40 MPH, THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WITH A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ANY LEFTOVER
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OUT NEAR
THE OBX AND COASTAL WATERS NEAR DAYBREAK.
OVERALL THERE WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE PATTERN
INTO THURSDAY. ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTH AND AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM JET REMAINS TO THE NORTH.
THIS WILL CHANGE HOWEVER ON THURS INTO FRI AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
TURN TO A SW'RLY DIRECTION OUT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING TROUGH. AT
THE MID LEVELS, WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS ENC DAILY,
WITH THE FIRST OF SUCH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE, THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT EVENTUALLY STALLS NEAR
THE COAST AND COMBINED WITH AN INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE, THIS
WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY AND TOMORROW. MAIN CORRIDOR TODAY FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ALONG HWY 17 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS EAST WITH JUST ISOLATED CHANCES FURTHER TO THE WEST. AS
WE GET INTO TOMORROW, THIS THREAT LIKELY PUSHES FURTHER INLAND
WITH THE SEABREEZE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. PRECIP CHANCES
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 20-40% EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
CHANCES DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. DESPITE POOR SHEAR, HIGH PWATS
EXCEEDING 2.25" ARE EXPECTED AND A STRONGER CELL COULD POSE AN
ISOLATED WET MICROBURST THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE, OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW - LESS THAN 5%.
KEY MESSAGE 3...DEEPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND PUSH TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BE
TRANSITING ALONG THIS TROUGH BRINGING A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO
ENC THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST AS THIS FRONT
NEARS THE AREA IT ALSO WILL STALL AND WEAKEN. EITHER WAY THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A MUCH WELCOME PATTERN CHANGE SERVING TO BOTH
OFFER A REPRIEVE FROM OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND A CHANCE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS SHEAR INCREASES ALONGSIDE
THE BOUNDARY WITH STRONGER TROUGHING. DETAILS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER FOCUS BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME DETAILS TO HAMMER OUT IN
THE COMING DAYS SUCH AS FRONTAL TIMING AND STRENGTH. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE FORECAST FOR ANY ADJUSTMENTS
IN THE COMING DAYS. NCAR MEDIUM- RANGE AI NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST AT LEAST MODEST PROBABILITIES (AROUND 5%) OF AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PRIMARILY VFR FLIGHT CATS ARE NOTED ACROSS ENC THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAD IMPACTED AREAS NORTH OF HWY
264 HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED AND JUST SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG HAS
BEEN SEEN THIS MORNING, MAINLY LOCATED ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST
AND ISO TAF SITE. EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER GROUND FOG TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BUT, WITH LEFTOVER GROUND FOG OVER
ISO, HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
THREAT HERE THROUGH 13Z.
ONCE THE REST OF THE PATCHY GROUND FOG DISSIPATES, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, AS WE GET INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING A COMBINATION OF THE DAILY SEABREEZE
AND A STALLING FRONT WILL LIKELY PROMOTE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AROUND AND EAST OF HWY 17, AND AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT
PROB30 GROUPS IN FOR EWN/OAJ TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. WITHIN
ANY THUNDERSTORM, MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS/VIS ARE POSSIBLE. WE
REMAIN MAINLY DRY ACROSS ISO/PGV TAF SITES AND SURROUNDING AREAS
SO HAVE NO PRECIP MENTION HERE. ANY PRECIP CHANCES END NEAR
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ONCE AGAIN, GUIDANCE
IS HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AND MAYBE SOME
LOW STRATUS TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 06Z. HOWEVER, MUCH LIKE THE
LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC. TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS UNCERTAIN THREAT HAVE JUST INCLUDED A FEW009 CLOUD
DECK AT THE TAF SITES FOR NOW AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENING TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
POTENTIAL SUB-VFR THREAT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): EXPECTING PRIMARILY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURS. THE LONE EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE UNDER
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SEABREEZE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG OR LOW
STRATUS CONCERNS EACH NIGHT EITHER BUT TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED IN CASE THE THREAT INCREASES IN THE COMING DAYS. YET
ANOTHER FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM RISKS AS WELL AS
INCREASING RISKS FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
NO REAL CHANGES IN THE MARINE FORECAST AS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN RATHER BENIGN ACROSS OUR WATERS. HAVE ONGOING 15-20
KT SW'RLY WINDS AND 2-3 FT SEAS NOTED THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL
WATERS. DO HAVE SOME ONGOING SHOWER AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE INNER RIVERS AND SOUNDS THIS
MORNING, BUT OUTSIDE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING, MINIMAL IMPACT IS
FORECAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE NEAR
DAYBREAK TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO EASE DOWN TO 5-10 KTS BY THIS
EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A STALLING COLD FRONT. THESE LIGHT
WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WONT CHANCE
MUCH EITHER MAXING OUT AROUND 2-3 FT ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS
INTO WED.
OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): BENIGN BOATING
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH WED AND THURS WITH EYES TO NEXT
POTENTIAL SCA FRI AND INTO SAT WITH A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EACH DAY WILL BRING A LOW TO MODERATE RISK (20-40%) OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA WATERS, WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO
THE WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ029-044>046-079-080-091-092-193-203>205.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ047-081-090-094-194>196-198-199.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RCF
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RCF
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