298
FXUS62 KMHX 181953
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
353 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY FOR PAMLICO, CRAVEN,
CARTERET, ONSLOW, JONES, AND DUPLIN COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID TEMPS PERSIST ACROSS ENC INTO FRI.
2) ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE SEABREEZE THROUGH THURSDAY.
3) NEXT FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, USHERING IN A
PATTERN CHANGE OF RELATIVELY COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH NW FLOW KEEPING THE SEA BREEZE PINNED TO THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST. DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S HAVE ALLOWED HEAT INDICES TO
CLIMB TO AROUND THE 105-115 DEGREE RANGE. THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z THIS
EVENING.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SLIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLING JUST OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT BRINGING N TO NE
WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE BECOMES
DOMINANT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S NORTHERN TIER WITH HEAT INDICES PEAKING AROUND
100-105, HOWEVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
TEMPS REACH THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105-110 AND
HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PAMLICO, CRAVEN, CARTERET,
JONES, ONSLOW AND DUPLIN COUNTIES. A RETURN TO S/SW FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING A GREATER AREA OF HEAT INDICES
AROUND 105-110 AND WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE ARE FRIDAY
BRINGING GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AS WELL AS COVERAGE OF STORMS
AND EXPECT HEAT INDICES TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NW FLOW HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED TO THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS ENC SO FAR,
HOWEVER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MAINLAND DARE CO. ADDITIONALLY, WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE PUSHING ACROSS NE NC ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AND
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO COASTAL
SECTIONS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE WEAK
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE FRONT WEAKENS WITH THE SEA
BREEZE BECOMING DOMINANT AND MAKING A FARTHER PUSH INLAND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND
20-40% BEFORE CHANCES DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. DESPITE POOR SHEAR,
HIGH PWATS EXCEEDING 2.25" ARE EXPECTED AND A STRONGER CELL
COULD POSE AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST THREAT. OTHERWISE, OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS LOW - LESS THAN 5%.
CONTINUED MOIST AND UNSTABLE ON THURSDAY WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN SHEAR TO AROUND 25 KT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...DEEPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND PUSH TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS
THE REGION. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS, MOIST SSW FLOW ALOFT ALONG
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LIKELY LIMITED
STRONG INSTABILITY AND STORMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE SUB-
SEVERE, THOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH
PW VALUES GREATER THAN 2".
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY BRINGING BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS,
THOUGH MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WEAK
N TO NE FLOW DEVELOPING. GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS FOG POTENTIAL
FAIRLY LOW, LESS THAN 30 PERCENT BUT THE CHANCES FOR STRATUS IS
A BIT HIGHER WITH HREF PROBS FOR IFR CIGS AROUND 40-70 PERCENT.
NOT ALL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS STRATUS, HOWEVER, AND LIMITED LOW
CLOUD COVERAGE TO SCT IN THE TAF FOR NOW. IF STRATUS DOES
DEVELOP, IT WILL DISSIPATE AROUND MID MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY): PRED VFR EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY THOUGH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SEABREEZE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BRING
BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY ONCE AGAIN BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM RISKS AS WELL AS INCREASING RISKS FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT TEMPORARILY DROPPING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING N TO NE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE BECOMING
DOMINANT BRINGING SE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND 2-3 FT.
OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): BENIGN BOATING
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH WED AND THURS WITH EYES TO NEXT
POTENTIAL SCA FRI AND INTO SAT WITH A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EACH DAY WILL BRING A LOW TO MODERATE RISK (20-40%) OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA WATERS, WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO
THE WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>046-
079-080-091-092-193-203>205.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ047-
081-090-094-194>196-198-199.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ090-092-
094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SK/RCF
AVIATION...SK/RCF
MARINE...SK/RCF
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