653
FXUS62 KMHX 190358
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1158 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID TEMPS PERSIST ACROSS ENC INTO FRI.
2) ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE SEABREEZE THROUGH THURSDAY.
3) NEXT FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, USHERING IN A
PATTERN CHANGE OF RELATIVELY COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SLIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING JUST OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT
BRINGING N TO NE WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SEA
BREEZE BECOMES DOMINANT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS EXPECTED
IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S NORTHERN TIER WITH HEAT INDICES
PEAKING AROUND 100-105, HOWEVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE TEMPS REACH THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES
AROUND 105-110 AND HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR PAMLICO,
CRAVEN, CARTERET, JONES, ONSLOW AND DUPLIN COUNTIES. A RETURN TO
S/SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING A GREATER AREA OF
HEAT INDICES AROUND 105-110 AND WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE
ARE FRIDAY BRINGING GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AS WELL AS COVERAGE
OF STORMS AND EXPECT HEAT INDICES TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NW FLOW HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE PINNED TO THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ACROSS ENC SO FAR,
HOWEVER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MAINLAND DARE CO. ADDITIONALLY, WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE PUSHING ACROSS NE NC ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AND
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO COASTAL
SECTIONS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE WEAK
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE
EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE FRONT WEAKENS WITH THE SEA
BREEZE BECOMING DOMINANT AND MAKING A FARTHER PUSH INLAND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHANCES GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND
20-40% BEFORE CHANCES DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. DESPITE POOR SHEAR,
HIGH PWATS EXCEEDING 2.25" ARE EXPECTED AND A STRONGER CELL
COULD POSE AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST THREAT. OTHERWISE, OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS LOW - LESS THAN 5%.
CONTINUED MOIST AND UNSTABLE ON THURSDAY WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN SHEAR TO AROUND 25 KT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS.
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...DEEPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND PUSH TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS
THE REGION. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS, MOIST SSW FLOW ALOFT ALONG
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE WILL LIKELY LIMITED
STRONG INSTABILITY AND STORMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE SUB-
SEVERE, THOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH
PW VALUES GREATER THAN 2".
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY BRINGING BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS,
THOUGH MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
OUTLIER HERE IS PGV WHICH WILL BE RECEIVING A DECENT TSTORM FROM
THE W, HENCE THE MVFR TSRA TEMPO THERE. A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WEAK N TO NE FLOW
DEVELOPING. LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF FOG AND/OR STRATUS
DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE. CERTAIN SUITES ARE EXCITED ABOUT FOG
POTENTIAL WITH LIMITED SUITES SHOWING STRATUS ENCROACHING FROM
THE NE, IMPACTING MAINLY NEERN TERMINALS (BUT GENERALLY AWAY
FROM TAF SITES). WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF THE STRATUS IN THE
TAFS BUT HAVE BACKED DOWN SOME GOING FROM SCT TO FEW FOR THIS.
OAJ FOGGED UP LAST NIGHT DESPITE THE LACK OF RAINFALL. WITH THE
BOUNDARY NEARBY AND WINDS GOING CALM, AM GOING TO GO WITH FOG
HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE OF IMPACTING SPOTS THAT LIKE TO FOG UP
(OAJ AND ADJACENT ZONES) AND SPOTS THAT SEE RAIN THIS EVENING
AND THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT (LIKE PGV AND AREAS E TOWARD
THE ALBEMARLE PENINSULA). IF STRATUS DOES DEVELOP, IT WILL
DISSIPATE AROUND MID MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY): PRED VFR EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY THOUGH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SEABREEZE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BRING
BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY ONCE AGAIN BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM RISKS AS WELL AS INCREASING RISKS FOR SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT TEMPORARILY DROPPING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING N TO NE WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE BECOMING
DOMINANT BRINGING SE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND 2-3 FT.
OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY): BENIGN BOATING
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH WED AND THURS WITH EYES TO NEXT
POTENTIAL SCA FRI AND INTO SAT WITH A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
EACH DAY WILL BRING A LOW TO MODERATE RISK (20-40%) OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA WATERS, WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO
THE WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ090-092-
094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SK/RCF
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...SK/RCF
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