507
FXUS62 KMHX 191039
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
639 AM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID TEMPS PERSIST ACROSS ENC INTO THURSDAY.
2) A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
WEATHER, HEAVY RAIN, AND FLOODING
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NOTABLY WARM LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AMID
WESTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF HOT
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 90S INLAND AND
NEAR 90 ALONG THE COAST. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO
A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS TODAY, WITH DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY
MIXING OUT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS PARTS OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, THE HEAT INDICES WOULD TEND TO
BE CAPPED A BIT LOWER COMPARED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST
WHERE THE INLAND-ADVANCING SEABREEZE WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS
ELEVATED. IN LIGHT OF THIS, A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR A SMALLER PORTION OF ENC WHERE THE RISK OF 105+ HEAT INDICES
IS THE HIGHEST.
A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RISING DEWPOINTS AMID NOTABLY
WARM LOW- LEVEL THICKNESSES AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM HIGHS (MID TO
UPPER 90S INLAND AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST). THE COMBINATION
OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND RISING DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
A MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF HEAT INDICES OF 105+, AND HEAT
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
BY THE WEEKEND, INCREASED CLOUDCOVER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES DOWN. IT WILL
STILL BE VERY HUMID, BUT THE RISK OF 105+ HEAT INDICES LOOKS
LOWER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT, AND PERHAPS A
BIT OF SUBSIDENCE, IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OFFSHORE
THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY.
LATE TONIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY, MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA IN EARNEST, WITH PWATS CLIMBING
BACK ABOVE 2". DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, KEEPING A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
AT THE SURFACE, INLAND TROUGHING AND THE SEABREEZE SHOULD
INITIALLY BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY EVENING OR THURSDAY NIGHT, A NOTABLE COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE AREA FROM THE NW. THIS MAY
LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN LASTING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY. THE RISK OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IF A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MANAGES TO MAKE IT TO THE COAST.
ON FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ARE FORECAST
TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND INTERACT WITH THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED COLD FRONT AMID A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE-
RICH ENVIRONMENT. SYNOPTICALLY, THIS IS A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. PERHAPS ONE IMPORTANT CAVEAT IS WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS AS THIS IS WHERE FORCING AND RAINFALL RATES SHOULD
BE THE STRONGEST. OF NOTE, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PARALLEL TO THE
STALLED FRONT ADDS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. FORECAST AIDS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. WPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA, DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD GET A BOOST, WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. OF NOTE, MACHINE LEARNING AND AI GUIDANCE
FAVOR THURSDAY OVER FRIDAY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS,
STAY TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO FINE-TUNE WHERE/WHEN THE GREATEST
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING WILL BE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
REMAINS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN BEHIND A WEAK LOW THAT MOVED
OFFSHORE OF NC LAST NIGHT. THIS DRIER AIR APPEARS TO HAVE KEPT
THE RISK OF LOW CIGS/VIS AT BAY, AND THE TAFS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. THAT DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE TSRA RISK
TODAY AS WELL. IN LIGHT OF THIS, THE PROB30S HAVE BEEN PULLED
OUT OF THE TAFS GIVEN THE LOWER PROBABILITY. A FEW SEABREEZE
TSRA ARE STILL POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED REGARDING
THE POTENTIAL AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK: THE RISK OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY,
AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. PERIODS OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA AND LOW CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OF
5-10KT WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. A RELAXED GRADIENT
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD BOATING
CONDITIONS TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS.
SEAS OF AROUND 2 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, WITH
WINDS OF 10-20KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL RESPOND AND BUILD TO 2-3FT
DURING THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS
BECOMING NORTHERLY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE
AREA, THOUGH, LEADING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
AND NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH. AN INCREASED RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY THANKS TO THE
FRONT OVER THE AREA. THIS RISK MAY LAST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.
EVENTUALLY, THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATING FOR ALL WATERS BY SUNDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ090-092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
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