158
FXUS62 KMHX 191829
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
229 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID TEMPS PERSIST ACROSS ENC INTO THURSDAY.
2) A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
WEATHER, HEAVY RAIN, AND FLOODING
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NOTABLY WARM LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AMID
W-SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF HOT
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 90S INLAND AND
NEAR 90 ALONG THE COAST. THE WESTERLY FLOW HAS LEAD TO A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS TODAY, WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS HAS KEPT HEAT INDEX VALUES LESS THAN 105 DEG FOR MOST OF
THE AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO RISING DEWPOINTS AMID NOTABLY WARM LOW- LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM HIGHS (MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND
AND LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST). THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND RISING DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A
SLIGHTLY MORE EXPANSIVE AREA OF HEAT INDICES OF 105+ THU. HAVE
ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, WHICH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH ON LATER
SHIFTS.
BY THE WEEKEND, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES DOWN. IT WILL
STILL BE VERY HUMID, BUT THE RISK OF 105+ HEAT INDICES LOOKS
LOWER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT, AND PERHAPS A
BIT OF SUBSIDENCE, IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVED
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CAP AT LOW CHANCE POPS. LATE TONIGHT, AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY, MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO RETURN
TO THE AREA IN EARNEST, WITH PWATS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 2". DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND, KEEPING A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
AT THE SURFACE, INLAND TROUGHING AND THE SEABREEZE SHOULD
INITIALLY BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY EVENING OR THURSDAY NIGHT, A NOTABLE COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE AREA FROM THE NW. THIS MAY
LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN LASTING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY. THE RISK OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IF A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MANAGES TO MAKE IT TO THE COAST.
ON FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ARE FORECAST
TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND INTERACT WITH THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED COLD FRONT AMID A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE-
RICH ENVIRONMENT. SYNOPTICALLY, THIS IS A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. PERHAPS ONE IMPORTANT CAVEAT IS WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS AS THIS IS WHERE FORCING AND RAINFALL RATES SHOULD
BE THE STRONGEST. OF NOTE, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PARALLEL TO THE
STALLED FRONT ADDS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. FORECAST AIDS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. WPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA, DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD GET A BOOST, WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. OF NOTE, MACHINE LEARNING AND AI GUIDANCE
FAVOR THURSDAY OVER FRIDAY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS,
STAY TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO FINE-TUNE WHERE/WHEN THE GREATEST
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING WILL BE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
REMAINS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ISO TO WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. PROB LOOKS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, BEST CHANCES AT EWN AND OAJ.
OUTLOOK: THE RISK OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY,
AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. PERIODS OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA AND LOW CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW VARIABLE WINDS N-SE 5-10 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS OF AROUND 2
FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 5-15 KT THU AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.
OUTLOOK: BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH WINDS OF 10-20KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL RESPOND AND BUILD TO
2-3FT DURING THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND WINDS BECOMING MORE VARIABLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
STALL OVER THE AREA, THOUGH, LEADING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS AND NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH. AN INCREASED RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY THANKS TO
THE FRONT OVER THE AREA. THIS RISK MAY LAST INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL. EVENTUALLY, THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATING FOR ALL WATERS BY SUNDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ090-092-094-
193>196-198-199.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ090>092-
094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/CQD
AVIATION...RM/CQD
MARINE...RM/CQD
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