613
FXUS62 KMHX 200028
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
828 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCO UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID TEMPS PERSIST ACROSS ENC INTO THURSDAY.
2) A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
WEATHER, HEAVY RAIN, AND FLOODING
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RISING
DEWPOINTS AMID NOTABLY WARM LOW- LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
ANOMALOUSLY WARM HIGHS (MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND LOW 90S
ALONG THE COAST). THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND RISING
DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY MORE EXPANSIVE AREA
OF HEAT INDICES OF 105+ THU. HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH ON LATER SHIFTS.
BY THE WEEKEND, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES DOWN. IT WILL
STILL BE VERY HUMID, BUT THE RISK OF 105+ HEAT INDICES LOOKS
LOWER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT, AND PERHAPS A
BIT OF SUBSIDENCE, IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVED
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CAP AT LOW CHANCE POPS. LATE TONIGHT, AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY, MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO RETURN
TO THE AREA IN EARNEST, WITH PWATS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 2". DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND, KEEPING A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
AT THE SURFACE, INLAND TROUGHING AND THE SEABREEZE SHOULD
INITIALLY BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY EVENING OR THURSDAY NIGHT, A NOTABLE COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE AREA FROM THE NW. THIS MAY
LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN LASTING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY. THE RISK OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IF A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MANAGES TO MAKE IT TO THE COAST.
ON FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ARE FORECAST
TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND INTERACT WITH THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED COLD FRONT AMID A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE-
RICH ENVIRONMENT. SYNOPTICALLY, THIS IS A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. PERHAPS ONE IMPORTANT CAVEAT IS WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS AS THIS IS WHERE FORCING AND RAINFALL RATES SHOULD
BE THE STRONGEST. OF NOTE, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PARALLEL TO THE
STALLED FRONT ADDS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. FORECAST AIDS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. WPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA, DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD GET A BOOST, WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. OF NOTE, MACHINE LEARNING AND AI GUIDANCE
FAVOR THURSDAY OVER FRIDAY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS,
STAY TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO FINE-TUNE WHERE/WHEN THE GREATEST
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING WILL BE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
REMAINS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE
CONVECTION-LESS SEABREEZE APPROACHING INLAND TAF SITES AT TIME
OF WRITING. MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BEST CHANCES AT EWN AND OAJ. HAVE GONE A
LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE WITH THIS
EVENING'S MODEL SUITE SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD AND DENSER FOG
THAN PREVIOUS ITERATIONS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SWERN
ZONES FIRST AND SPREAD NEWARD. HAVE CONTINUED PREVAILING MVFR
FOG LINE FOR EWN AND OAJ BUT HAVE STEPPED UP THE FOG DENSITY FOR
OAJ AND INCLUDED A TEMPO IFR LINE HERE. HAVE ADDED A PREVAILING
MVFR LINE WITH A TEMPO IFR GROUP FOR PGV WITH THAT SITE'S
PROCLIVITY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. ISO HAS THE LOWEST CHANCES SO
HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VFR MINOR FOG PREVAILING LINE WITH A TEMPO
MVFR GROUP. THE RISK OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON THU AND
VCTS GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO ALL TAF SITES FOR CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. APPROPRIATE PROB30
GROUPS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADDED TO ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR OAJ WHO
IS ONLY SPORTING A 15-24% POP FROM 18Z-23Z.
OUTLOOK: THE RISK OF TSRA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. PERIODS OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS IN
TSRA AND LOW CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW VARIABLE WINDS N-SE 5-10 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS OF AROUND 2
FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 5-15 KT THU AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.
OUTLOOK: BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH WINDS OF 10-20KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL RESPOND AND BUILD TO
2-3FT DURING THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND WINDS BECOMING MORE VARIABLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
STALL OVER THE AREA, THOUGH, LEADING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS AND NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH. AN INCREASED RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY THANKS TO
THE FRONT OVER THE AREA. THIS RISK MAY LAST INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL. EVENTUALLY, THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATING FOR ALL WATERS BY SUNDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ090>092-
094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/CQD
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...RM/CQD
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