901
FXUS62 KMHX 200540
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
140 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID TEMPS PERSIST ACROSS ENC INTO THURSDAY.
2) A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND, ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
WEATHER, HEAVY RAIN, AND FLOODING
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RISING
DEWPOINTS AMID NOTABLY WARM LOW- LEVEL THICKNESSES AND
ANOMALOUSLY WARM HIGHS (MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND AND LOW 90S
ALONG THE COAST). THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND RISING
DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY MORE EXPANSIVE AREA
OF HEAT INDICES OF 105+ THU. HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHICH MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH ON LATER SHIFTS.
BY THE WEEKEND, INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD HELP TO HOLD TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES DOWN. IT WILL
STILL BE VERY HUMID, BUT THE RISK OF 105+ HEAT INDICES LOOKS
LOWER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS ALOFT, AND PERHAPS A
BIT OF SUBSIDENCE, IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVED
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CAP AT LOW CHANCE POPS. LATE TONIGHT, AND
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY, MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO RETURN
TO THE AREA IN EARNEST, WITH PWATS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE 2". DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN CONTINUES INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND, KEEPING A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.
AT THE SURFACE, INLAND TROUGHING AND THE SEABREEZE SHOULD
INITIALLY BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY EVENING OR THURSDAY NIGHT, A NOTABLE COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON THE AREA FROM THE NW. THIS MAY
LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN LASTING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY. THE RISK OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY IF A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MANAGES TO MAKE IT TO THE COAST.
ON FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ARE FORECAST
TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND INTERACT WITH THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED COLD FRONT AMID A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE-
RICH ENVIRONMENT. SYNOPTICALLY, THIS IS A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. PERHAPS ONE IMPORTANT CAVEAT IS WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS AS THIS IS WHERE FORCING AND RAINFALL RATES SHOULD
BE THE STRONGEST. OF NOTE, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PARALLEL TO THE
STALLED FRONT ADDS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. FORECAST AIDS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. WPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA, DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD GET A BOOST, WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. OF NOTE, MACHINE LEARNING AND AI GUIDANCE
FAVOR THURSDAY OVER FRIDAY FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS,
STAY TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO FINE-TUNE WHERE/WHEN THE GREATEST
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING WILL BE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
REMAINS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DECENT SIGNAL FOR REDUCED VIS OVERNIGHT
DUE TO MIFG/BR, AND THE TAFS REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
00Z ISSUANCE. AT THIS TIME, THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD, IMPACTFUL FG
APPEARS LOW (10-30% CHANCE). ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEABREEZE. A
TSRA RISK MAY ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER INLAND ALONG A WEAK INLAND
TROUGH. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE BACKING OFF SOME ON THE RISK
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
PROB30 MENTION FOR MOST TAF SITES FOR NOW. AFTER SUNSET, AN
ELEVATED RISK OF TSRA MAY DEVELOP FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF
OF ENC AS A BROKEN LINE OF WEAKENING SHRA AND TSRA APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. FOR NOW, WE'LL HOLD OFF ON ADDING A MENTION IN
THE TAFS WITH THIS CYCLE AS THE RISK LOOKS LIKE IT MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER 06Z/FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: A HEIGHTENED RISK OF TSRA IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY THANKS TO A STALLED FRONT AND VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
DURING THIS TIME, WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED,
INCLUDING A RISK OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES DURING THE
STRONGEST TSRA AND HEAVIEST RA. ADDITIONALLY, TSRA WILL CARRY A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS OF 40KT+, ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY. A RISK OF HAIL UP TO 0.75" MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
CORES AS WELL. DRIER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO MOVE IN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A REDUCED RISK OF TSRA.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW VARIABLE WINDS N-SE 5-10 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS OF AROUND 2
FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 5-15 KT THU AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.
OUTLOOK: BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH WINDS OF 10-20KT EXPECTED. SEAS WILL RESPOND AND BUILD TO
2-3FT DURING THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND WINDS BECOMING MORE VARIABLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
STALL OVER THE AREA, THOUGH, LEADING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS AND NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH. AN INCREASED RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY THANKS TO
THE FRONT OVER THE AREA. THIS RISK MAY LAST INTO SATURDAY AS
WELL. EVENTUALLY, THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE AREA
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DOMINATING FOR ALL WATERS BY SUNDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/CQD
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM/CQD
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