425
FXUS62 KMHX 201116
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
716 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN FOR TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY.
2) A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, INCLUDING A
RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAIN, AND
FLOODING
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS REDEVELOPED AREAWIDE
THIS MORNING, AND DEWPOINTS ARE STARTING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE LOW TO MID 70S YESTERDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, ENSEMBLE AND EFI GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS ANOTHER DAY
OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD SUPPORT A LARGER
FOOTPRINT OF HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 105 DEGREES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. AS SUCH, THE HEAT ADVISORY COVERS A LARGER AREA
TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER
NORTH IN THE COASTAL PLAIN, AND NOW INCLUDES GREENE, PITT, AND
BEAUFORT COUNTIES. HEAT INDICES MAY ONCE AGAIN FLIRT WITH 105
DEGREES ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUDCOVER AND AN
INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TEMPER THIS RISK SOME. A
SMALLER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DELAYED LATER INTO THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS HELP BOOST DEWPOINTS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH SOME MIXING
THIS AFTERNOON, HEATING OF THE MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
SUPPORT STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPE FORECAST TO REACH 2000-3000J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK (10-20KT), FAVORING POORLY ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. DURING
THE DAY, THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS LOOK TO BE THE SEABREEZE
AND AN INLAND TROUGH. CONVERGENCE DOESN'T LOOK GREAT WITH
EITHER, AND THIS MAY TEND TO KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY RISK
WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS SHOULD BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF 40-50
MPH.
LATER THIS EVENING (IE. AFTER 10PM), A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NW. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
MOVING SE OUT OF VIRGINIA. MOST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE INSIST THAT
THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES
ENC. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE INCREASED FORCING ALONG THE FRONT, THE
CONVECTION MAY LAST LONGER THAN SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, EVEN IF
ELEVATED/WEAK IN NATURE. PRIOR TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING, A
RISK OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE OUTFLOW WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY REACH THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF ENC.
ON FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CAROLINAS, AND WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY
MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS, FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD GET A BUMP UP
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT, AND SYNOPTICALLY THIS APPEARS TO
BE A DECENT SETUP FOR SEVERAL INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE
PRIMARY RISK SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR AND A SIGNAL FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS, A HAIL RISK MAY DEVELOP IN SOME OF THE
STRONGEST/TALLEST CORES.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, THERE WILL ALSO BE
A RISK OF INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND HYDRO CONCERNS. STRONG
INSTABILITY, 2"+ PWATS, INCREASED LARGE-SCALE AND MESOSCALE
FORCING, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION ALL POINT
TOWARDS A RISK OF FLOODING, INCLUDING AT LEAST A FEW INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, INSTABILITY WILL BE LOWER, AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A
LOWERED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS
MAY CONTINUE, THOUGH.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS
AND FG FROM NEAR KILM NORTH THROUGH KDPL AND THEN ON NORTH INTO
CENTRAL NC. THIS AREA HAS MOSTLY REMAINED WEST OF THE ENC TAF
SITES, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE BASED ON
THE CURRENT, AND FORECAST, LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ON THE EDGE, THOUGH,
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RISK OF BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VIS
THROUGH ABOUT 13Z THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON, ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE SEABREEZE. A TSRA RISK MAY ALSO DEVELOP
FURTHER INLAND ALONG A WEAK INLAND TROUGH. GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE BACKING OFF SOME ON THE RISK DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, BUT
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A PROB30 MENTION FOR MOST TAF SITES
FOR NOW. AFTER SUNSET, AN ELEVATED RISK OF TSRA MAY DEVELOP FOR
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF ENC AS A BROKEN LINE OF WEAKENING
SHRA AND TSRA APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK: A HEIGHTENED RISK OF TSRA IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY THANKS TO A STALLED FRONT AND VARIOUS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE INTERACTING WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
DURING THIS TIME, WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED,
INCLUDING A RISK OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES DURING THE
STRONGEST TSRA AND HEAVIEST RA. ADDITIONALLY, TSRA WILL CARRY A
HEIGHTENED RISK OF GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS OF 40KT+, ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY. A RISK OF HAIL UP TO 0.75" MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
CORES AS WELL. DRIER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO MOVE IN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH A REDUCED RISK OF TSRA.
MARINE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 5-15KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING, WITH SEAS OF 2-3FT. THE THUNDERSTORM RISK SHOULD
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE INLAND RIVERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RISK SHOULD THEN EXPAND TO ALL WATERS LATER THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40KT. BEHIND THE FRONT, LIGHT NORTH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS.
OUTLOOK: A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH ONE OR TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VARYING WIND PATTERN
THAT WILL HINGE ON WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND HOW STRONG EACH
LOW IS. BY LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, A MORE DOMINANT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED.
THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOWS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR MOST WATERS. THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50KT+ AND
PERHAPS SOME HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS EXPECTED TO LOWER BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ044-079-080-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
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