661
FXUS62 KMHX 211045
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
645 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF ENC
FOR TODAY.
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF ENC FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED FOR TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT TO LAST ONE MORE DAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HWY
70.
2) AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, INCLUDING A
RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAIN, AND
FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HELP HOLD DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT, AND WHEN
CONVECTION GETS GOING, IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR SUFFICIENT HEATING SOUTH OF HWY 70, SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES OF 105-107 DEGREES. IN LIGHT OF
THIS, A SMALL HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST, HEAT
INDICES MAY HOLD AROUND 105 DEGREES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
NORTH OF THE COAST, AN INCREASED RISK OF CONVECTION AND CLOUDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER THE HEAT RISK A BIT EARLIER (IE. 3-5PM
INLAND VS 7-8PM ALONG THE COAST).
KEY MESSAGE 2...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, IT APPEARS THAT
VARIOUS MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL HEAVILY DICTATE WHERE THE RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING WILL BE FOCUSED. IN LIGHT
OF THAT, IT'S IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN THE RISK AREAS ARE PROBABLE AS THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
MESOSCALE FEATURES ASIDE, THE PATTERN CHECKS SEVERAL BOXES FOR
HEAVY RAIN RATES, FLOODING, AND SEVERE WEATHER. A HIGH PWAT
AIRMASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE, AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH VALUES OF 2-2.25" FORECAST. MEANWHILE, HEATING OF A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. TODAY, IN PARTICULAR, MLCAPE IS
FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST 2000- 3000J/KG, WITH SOME AREAS
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 3000J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
BE MARGINAL, BUT MAY REACH 20-25KT NEAR A FRONT THAT IS FORECAST
TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THAT SHOULD SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT
IMPROVED POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR SHOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL
UP TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE. STRONG UPDRAFTS AND ENHANCED
STRETCHING IN THE VICINITY OF VARIOUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES MAY
ALSO SUPPORT A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO RISK. THE MOST LIKELY THREAT,
THOUGH, IS DAMAGING, WATERLOADED DOWNDRAFTS OF 40-60 MPH.
LASTLY, THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND AN ANOMALOUSLY
MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF 2-3"/HR RAINFALL
RATES. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PROPAGATE ALONG VARIOUS
OUTFLOWS AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES, THOSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A
RISK OF FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. THIS RISK LOOKS TO BE THE
HIGHEST IN SOME OF THE MORE URBANIZED AREAS FROM JACKSONVILLE TO
NEW BERN AND NORTH THROUGH KINSTON AND GREENVILLE.
NOW THE COMPLICATED PART. GUIDANCE DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE COLD FRONT AND VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NOTED ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE THIS MORNING. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS APPEARS TO BE FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL FROM NEAR KENANSVILLE EAST TO NEAR NEW
BERN. TODAY'S FORECAST AND MESSAGING IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON
THAT LOCATION. FOR EXAMPLE, THERE SHOULD BE A MAXIMUM IN LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHERE THE SEABREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT,
AND IS WHERE RAINFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH
2-5". IF THE FRONT ENDS UP FURTHER NORTH, THE HEAVY RAIN
FOOTPRINT WOULD FOLLOW SUITE, AND VICE-VERSA. TO TRY TO BEST
CAPTURE THE VARIOUS SCENARIOS, A TARGETED FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED COVERING THE GREENVILLE TO JACKSONVILLE TO NEW BERN
CORRIDOR WHERE THE RISK OF FLOODING APPEARS TO BE THE HIGHEST.
OF NOTE, THE IMMEDIATE CRYSTAL COAST WAS LEFT OUT AS THAT AREA
MAY TEND TO BE IN THE SHADOW OF THE SEABREEZE, WITH LOWER
RAINFALL TOTALS. NORTH AND EAST OF THE WATCH AREA, INSTABILITY
AND FORCING MAY NOT BE AS HIGH, WHICH SHOULD ALSO KEEP RAINFALL
RATES AND AMOUNTS LOWER. STAY TUNED AS WE CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
AREAS AT GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A FRONT IS SLOWLY SETTLING SOUTH INTO NORTH CAROLINA AT THIS
TIME, AND IT IS FORECAST TO STALL WEST TO EAST FROM NEAR KCLT
EAST THROUGH NEAR KEWN. GUIDANCE DIFFER ON WHERE IT WILL STALL,
BUT WHERE IT ENDS UP IS WHERE THE GREATEST RISK OF TSRA IS
EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, THE TSRA RISK WILL
LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THROUGH TONIGHT,
TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF LIFR VIS, GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS OF
40-50KT, AND HAIL UP TO 1" IN DIAMETER.
OF NOTE, EARLY THIS MORNING THERE WILL BE A RISK OF LOW STRATUS
WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. THIS RISK MAY LESSEN SOME DURING THE
DAY, THEN RETURN TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF ANY TSRA ACTIVITY. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AREAS OF LIFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CIGS
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: AN INCREASED TSRA RISK IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO
SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR IMPACTS AS FRIDAY. THE TSRA RISK SHOULD
TAKE A STEP DOWN ON SUNDAY, BUT THE RISK ISN'T LOW EITHER. IT
MAY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY BEFORE THE RISK SUBSTANTIALLY LOWERS.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY STALL AROUND CAPE
HATTERAS. NORTH OF THE FRONT, A MODEST NORTHERLY FLOW OF 5-15KT
CAN BE EXPECTED. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
OF 5-15KT IS FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT WINDS, SEAS SHOULD
HOLD AROUND 2FT THROUGH TONIGHT.
ALONG THE FRONT THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS, THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF 40-50KT
WINDS, HAIL, AND WATERSPOUTS.
OUTLOOK: AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH A SOMEWHAT LOWER RISK BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A MORE DOMINANT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED ON SATURDAY AND LAST INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN
MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT.
SEAS BUILD TO 3-5FT ON SATURDAY, THEN LAY DOWN TO 2-3FT BY LATE
SUNDAY AS WINDS ALSO LAY DOWN. LIGHT WINDS AND REDUCED SEAS ARE
THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR NCZ044-079-080-090>092-094-193-194-198.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ090-092-094-193>196-198-199.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
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