553
FXUS62 KMHX 211924
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
324 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN TRIMMED TO THE IMMEDIATE CRYSTAL COAST.
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT LINGERS ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, INCLUDING A
RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAIN, AND
FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MADE SOME SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION THIS AFTERNOON AND NOW SITS JUST NORTH OF HIGHWAY 24
THIS HOUR PER MESOANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. COOLING
STRATUS, AS WELL AS OUTFLOW AND TORRENTIAL RAIN FROM
THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING NORTHWARD, HAS COOLED MUCH OF THE AREA
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BUT A SLIVER OF UPPER 80S
WITH TDS HOVERING NEAR 80 IS STILL HANGING ON SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. OPTED TO CANCEL THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THESE
COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH 8PM, ALTHOUGH THESE MAY ALSO BE DROPPED
AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AS CONVECTION FILLS BACK IN.
BEYOND TODAY, OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 APPEAR UNLIKELY
(LESS THAN 20%) THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON VARIOUS MESOSCALE FEATURES, WHICH IN TURN WILL
DICTATE WHERE STRONGER STORMS AND FLOODING WILL BE FOCUSED.
FLUCTUATION'S IN RISK AREAS ARE LIKELY AS ONGOING CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION IS ANALYZED.
ENVIRONMENT TODAY HAS INDEED BEEN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. CONVECTION GOT AN EARLY START,
DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 11 AM AND BLOSSOMING ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THEN COMPOUNDING WITH CONVERGENT OUTFLOWS AND
DIURNAL SOUND AND SEA BREEZES. OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY
FAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE AND FLOODING RISK TO CONTINUE WITH PWATS
OF 2-2.25" OBSERVED, HEFTY MLCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG, AND
RESPECTABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR THE SUMMER (25-35 KT). THE
PRIMARY THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS PRIMARILY DUE TO WET
MICROBURSTS, BUT SOME CELLS TODAY HAVE BEEN ROTATION AND COULD
POSE A HAIL RISK. ADDITIONALLY, WITH SO MANY BOUNDARIES IN PLAY
ORIENTATED IN VARIOUS DIRECTIONS CANNOT RULE OUT A THREAT FOR A
BRIEF, SHORT-LIVED TORNADO OR TWO.
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF 2-3"/HR
RAINFALL RATES. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PROPAGATE
ALONG VARIOUS OUTFLOWS AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES, THOSE RATES
SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS, WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. THIS RISK
LOOKS TO BE THE HIGHEST IN SOME OF THE MORE URBANIZED AREAS FROM
JACKSONVILLE TO NEW BERN AND NORTH THROUGH KINSTON AND
GREENVILLE. CURRENT QPE TRENDS SUGGEST THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN GOOD SHAPE TODAY, AND NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES WERE MADE.
EVOLUTION BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON'S ACTIVITY REMAINS A QUESTION
MARK, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SIGNAL FOR
CONVECTION, GROWING UPSCALE ACROSS ACROSS UPSTATE SC, TO
PROGRESS ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN NC AFTER NIGHTFALL. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE A MODEST DECREASE IN SHEAR.
STILL, A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN WITH
THIS COMPLEX. ADDITIONALLY, IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TO AGGRAVATE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THOSE LOCALES WHO
ALREADY SAW APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE THREAT REMAINS TOMORROW AS FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE REGION. LIKE TODAY, CONVECTION COULD GET AN EARLY START AS
SOON AS 15Z AND SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL
BE QUITE A BIT WEAKER AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LESS THAN
5%, BUT HIGH FORECAST PWATS POINT TO ANOTHER DAY OF EFFICIENT
RAINMAKERS AND POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED FOR AVIATION INTERESTS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS STALLED FRONT FUELS WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NC. VCTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT,
BUT ANOTHER LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS FORECAST TO
PUSH ACROSS TERMINALS, MOST LIKELY THOSE SOUTH OF ISO, AFTER 00Z
AND POTENTIALLY AS LATE AS 04-05Z. ANY DIRECT HITS FROM STORMS
WILL POSE A RISK OF LIFR VISIBILITY, GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS
POTENTIALLY UP TO 50 KT, AND HAIL UP TO 1" IN DIAMETER. FARTHER
NORTH, ESPECIALLY OF EWN, A PERSISTENT MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO IFR OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: AN INCREASED TSRA RISK IS EXPECTED TO LAST INTO
SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR IMPACTS TO TODAY. THE TSRA RISK SHOULD
TAKE A STEP DOWN ON SUNDAY, BUT THE RISK ISN'T LOW EITHER. IT
MAY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY BEFORE THE RISK SUBSTANTIALLY LOWERS.
MARINE
LOCAL AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED SOUTH AND STALLED OVER AREA WATERS, ORIENTATED ROUGHLY
FROM OCRACOKE TO THE MOUTH OF THE NEUSE RIVER. WINDS ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ARE AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS A SUBDUED 2-3
FEET. MAIN THREAT FOR MARINE INTERESTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW WILL BE CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS A COMPLEX
ORIGINATING OVER SC PROGRESSES AND BEGINS TO IMPACT WATERS CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF STRONG WINDS
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 40 KT AS WELL AS WATERSPOUTS, ESPECIALLY
FOR CELLS CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OUTLOOK: AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO AT LEAST TOMORROW, WITH A SOMEWHAT LOWER RISK BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A MORE DOMINANT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED ON SATURDAY AND LAST INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN
MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT.
SEAS BUILD TO 3-5FT ON SATURDAY, THEN LAY DOWN TO 2-3FT BY LATE
SUNDAY AS WINDS ALSO LAY DOWN. LIGHT WINDS AND REDUCED SEAS ARE
THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NCZ044-079-080-
090>092-094-193-194-198.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-199.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/MS
AVIATION...DAG/MS
MARINE...RM/MS
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