009
FXUS62 KMHX 220034
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
834 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE TSTORM WATCH CANCELLED EARLIER THIS EVENING
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, INCLUDING A
RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAIN, AND
FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON VARIOUS MESOSCALE FEATURES, WHICH IN TURN WILL
DICTATE WHERE STRONGER STORMS AND FLOODING WILL BE FOCUSED.
FLUCTUATION'S IN RISK AREAS ARE LIKELY AS ONGOING CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION IS ANALYZED.
ENVIRONMENT TODAY HAS INDEED BEEN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. CONVECTION GOT AN EARLY START,
DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 11 AM AND BLOSSOMING ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THEN COMPOUNDING WITH CONVERGENT OUTFLOWS AND
DIURNAL SOUND AND SEA BREEZES. SEVERE AND FLOODING RISK HAS
DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING, AS
OUTFLOWS HAVE WORKED OVER THE ENVIRONMENT BRINGING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO THE REGION. STILL. PWATS ARE IMPRESSIVE
AND MODERATE RAINFALL IS OCCURING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
THE COMBINATION OF LESSER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND AN
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL OF 1-2"/HR RAINFALL RATES. CONTINUED RAINFALL CHANCES
TONIGHT KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT, BUT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST FLOODING THREAT IS DECREASING.
CONVECTIVE THREAT REMAINS TOMORROW AS FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE REGION. LIKE TODAY, CONVECTION COULD GET AN EARLY START AS
SOON AS 15Z AND SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL
BE QUITE A BIT WEAKER AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LESS THAN
5%, BUT HIGH FORECAST PWATS POINT TO ANOTHER DAY OF EFFICIENT
RAINMAKERS AND POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OCCURING, WITH SOME THUNDER
OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT, WITH INLAND LOCALES LIKELY REMAINING THUNDER FREE AS
SBCIN HAS SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM OUTFLOWS EARLIER TODAY.
HOWEVER, SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SHOWERS/TSTORMS
INLAND AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS OUTCOME SEEMS TO BE
MORE UNLIKELY THAN NOT, SO HAVE KEPT THUNDER MENTIONS OUT OF TAF
SITES AT THIS TIME. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS (BOTH VIS AND CIG) ARE
EXPECTED TO SET IN TONIGHT WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
AN INCREASED TSRA RISK IS EXPECTED TO RETURN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. SUB-VFR CIGS COULD LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY, IT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH
DAYTIME HEATING EATS AWAY AT ANY STRATUS DECK OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK: THE TSRA RISK SHOULD TAKE A STEP DOWN ON SUNDAY, BUT
THE RISK ISN'T LOW EITHER. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY BEFORE THE
RISK SUBSTANTIALLY LOWERS.
MARINE
LOCAL AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED SOUTH AND STALLED OVER AREA WATERS, ORIENTATED ROUGHLY
FROM OCRACOKE TO THE MOUTH OF THE NEUSE RIVER. WINDS ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ARE AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS A SUBDUED 2-3
FEET. MAIN THREAT FOR MARINE INTERESTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW WILL BE CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS A COMPLEX
ORIGINATING OVER SC PROGRESSES AND BEGINS TO IMPACT WATERS CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF STRONG WINDS
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 40 KT AS WELL AS WATERSPOUTS, ESPECIALLY
FOR CELLS CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OUTLOOK: AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO AT LEAST TOMORROW, WITH A SOMEWHAT LOWER RISK BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A MORE DOMINANT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED ON SATURDAY AND LAST INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN
MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT.
SEAS BUILD TO 3-5FT ON SATURDAY, THEN LAY DOWN TO 2-3FT BY LATE
SUNDAY AS WINDS ALSO LAY DOWN. LIGHT WINDS AND REDUCED SEAS ARE
THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ044-079-080-090>092-
094-193-194-198.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/MS/RJ
AVIATION...DAG/MS/RJ
MARINE...RM/MS
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