192
FXUS62 KMHX 220541
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
141 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE TSTORM WATCH CANCELLED EARLIER THIS
EVENING
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, INCLUDING A
RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAIN, AND
FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW WILL BE HEAVILY
DEPENDENT ON VARIOUS MESOSCALE FEATURES, WHICH IN TURN WILL
DICTATE WHERE STRONGER STORMS AND FLOODING WILL BE FOCUSED.
FLUCTUATION'S IN RISK AREAS ARE LIKELY AS ONGOING CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION IS ANALYZED.
ENVIRONMENT TODAY HAS INDEED BEEN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS
AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. CONVECTION GOT AN EARLY START,
DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS 11 AM AND BLOSSOMING ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THEN COMPOUNDING WITH CONVERGENT OUTFLOWS AND
DIURNAL SOUND AND SEA BREEZES. SEVERE AND FLOODING RISK HAS
DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING, AS
OUTFLOWS HAVE WORKED OVER THE ENVIRONMENT BRINGING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO THE REGION. STILL. PWATS ARE IMPRESSIVE
AND MODERATE RAINFALL IS OCCURING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
THE COMBINATION OF LESSER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND AN
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL OF 1-2"/HR RAINFALL RATES. CONTINUED RAINFALL CHANCES
TONIGHT KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT, BUT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST FLOODING THREAT IS DECREASING.
CONVECTIVE THREAT REMAINS TOMORROW AS FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE REGION. LIKE TODAY, CONVECTION COULD GET AN EARLY START AS
SOON AS 15Z AND SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL
BE QUITE A BIT WEAKER AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LESS THAN
5%, BUT HIGH FORECAST PWATS POINT TO ANOTHER DAY OF EFFICIENT
RAINMAKERS AND POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN AREA OF LIFR CIGS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF ENC AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EXPANDING NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONCE LIFR CONDITIONS
SET IN, THEY WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, OBS WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOW A MIX OF VFR AND
LIFR CONDITIONS, SUGGESTING THE ARE OF LIFR CIGS MAY BE
TRANSIENT. FOR NOW THE TAFS WILL REFLECT THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
SCENARIO, WITH LIFR CONDITIONS HOLDING ON MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ONE
CAVEAT IS AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RA LIFTING NORTH FROM
NEAR KILM. THIS MAY DISRUPT THE LOW CIGS SOME, ESPECIALLY FROM
KOAJ TO KEWN. ON SATURDAY, CIGS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO MVFR
LEVELS, WITH VFR CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY NOT RETURNING UNTIL
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
THE TSRA RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF
SITES. THE RISK IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 11Z/12Z
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
THE GREATEST TSRA RISK IS EXPECTED FROM KOAJ TO KEWN, WITH A
SOMEWHAT LOWER RISK AT KISO AND KPGV. IN LIGHT OF THIS, I
DROPPED THE TSRA MENTION DOWN FROM VCTS TO PROB30 FOR THOSE TWO
SITES. TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF LIFR/IFR VIS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
40KT.
OUTLOOK: A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY, BUT GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS IT MAY STALL ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH MONDAY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, THE TSRA RISK WOULD LINGER
ALONG THE COAST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HOWEVER, EVEN
IN THAT SCENARIO, THE RISK MAY REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE TAF
SITES.
MARINE
LOCAL AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED SOUTH AND STALLED OVER AREA WATERS, ORIENTATED ROUGHLY
FROM OCRACOKE TO THE MOUTH OF THE NEUSE RIVER. WINDS ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ARE AROUND 10 KT WITH SEAS A SUBDUED 2-3
FEET. MAIN THREAT FOR MARINE INTERESTS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW WILL BE CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS A COMPLEX
ORIGINATING OVER SC PROGRESSES AND BEGINS TO IMPACT WATERS CLOSE
TO MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK OF STRONG WINDS
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 40 KT AS WELL AS WATERSPOUTS, ESPECIALLY
FOR CELLS CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
OUTLOOK: AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LAST
INTO AT LEAST TOMORROW, WITH A SOMEWHAT LOWER RISK BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A MORE DOMINANT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED ON SATURDAY AND LAST INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN
MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT.
SEAS BUILD TO 3-5FT ON SATURDAY, THEN LAY DOWN TO 2-3FT BY LATE
SUNDAY AS WINDS ALSO LAY DOWN. LIGHT WINDS AND REDUCED SEAS ARE
THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ044-079-080-
090>092-094-193-194-198.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/MS/RJ
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM/MS
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