953
FXUS62 KMHX 220722
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
322 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED EARLY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUES TODAY
2) DRIER AIR AND A REDUCED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, ESPECIALLY INLAND. A THUNDERSTORM RISK MAY LINGER ALONG
THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING, THEN
SHIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN ATTENDANT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST WHILE
PULLING A WARM FRONT NORTH WITH IT. THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT
ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THEIR TREK UP THE COAST. HOW CLOSE TO THE
COAST THE LOW TRAVELS, AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED,
WILL BE IMPORTANT FACTORS FOR WHICH AREAS SEE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL RATES TODAY. GIVEN HOW CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED THE
AIRMASS IS FROM YESTERDAY, IT MAY BE THAT THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT WILL RESIDE RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WHICH
WOULD FAVOR AREAS FROM COASTAL ONSLOW NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OBX
FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY. IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE, KEEPING THE HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES OFFSHORE AS WELL. REGARDLESS, THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AXIS SHOULD RESIDE EAST OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
AXIS WAS YESTERDAY, AND EAST OF WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH ORIGINALLY
COVERED. IN LIGHT OF THAT, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED,
AND A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS
TODAY DUE TO 1) SANDY SOILS WHICH CAN BE HARDER TO FLOOD, AND 2)
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGHER INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OR OFFSHORE.
FURTHER INLAND, SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE, BUT RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY DUE
TO LESS INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, SOME INSTANCES OF MINOR POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING MAY STILL OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST
U.S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE, AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS WITH MUCH DRIER AIR IN TOW BEHIND IT. NORMALLY THIS
WOULD SPELL A REDUCED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR ENC, AND FOR
MOST AREAS IT PROBABLY WILL. HOWEVER, RECENT GUIDANCE HAS
STARTED TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE FRONT'S EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHIFTS NE AWAY FROM THE REGION, LEAVING
THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO POTENTIALLY STALL NEAR THE COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS. THERE APPEARS TO BE 2 POSSIBLE SCENARIOS AT
THIS POINT, EACH OF WHICH IS OUTLINED BELOW.
SCENARIO 1: THE FRONT CLEARS THE COAST OF ENC. THIS SCENARIO
FAVORS A REDUCED RISK OF CONVECTION AREAWIDE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS AND LOWER HUMIDITY. THIS SCENARIO
WAS PREVIOUSLY FAVORED, BUT HAS RECENTLY LOST SOME MODEL
SUPPORT.
SCENARIO 2: THE FRONT MAKES IT TO THE COAST, BUT THEN STALLS.
IN THIS SCENARIO, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED INLAND, BUT WITH A
RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING ALONG THE COAST. INTERESTINGLY,
THIS SCENARIO OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR BECOMES MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. LIFT AND SHEAR COULD ALSO BE
ENHANCED AS THE AREA WOULD REMAIN IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRONG UPPER JET. LIFT COULD ALSO BE ENHANCED IF A SURFACE LOW
RIDES UP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE DO
NOT SHOW MUCH OF A SIGNAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION, WHILE
THE ECMWF'S EFI GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A DECENT SIGNAL. THIS
SCENARIO HAS BEEN GAINING SOME SUPPORT IN RECENT RUNS.
FOR NOW, MUCH OF ENC IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
BUT FOR COASTAL AREAS, THE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS SOMETHING WORTH
KEEPING AN EYE ON.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN AREA OF LIFR CIGS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF ENC AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EXPANDING NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONCE LIFR CONDITIONS
SET IN, THEY WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, OBS WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SHOW A MIX OF VFR AND
LIFR CONDITIONS, SUGGESTING THE ARE OF LIFR CIGS MAY BE
TRANSIENT. FOR NOW THE TAFS WILL REFLECT THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
SCENARIO, WITH LIFR CONDITIONS HOLDING ON MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ONE
CAVEAT IS AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RA LIFTING NORTH FROM
NEAR KILM. THIS MAY DISRUPT THE LOW CIGS SOME, ESPECIALLY FROM
KOAJ TO KEWN. ON SATURDAY, CIGS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO MVFR
LEVELS, WITH VFR CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY NOT RETURNING UNTIL
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.
THE TSRA RISK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF
SITES. THE RISK IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 11Z/12Z
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
THE GREATEST TSRA RISK IS EXPECTED FROM KOAJ TO KEWN, WITH A
SOMEWHAT LOWER RISK AT KISO AND KPGV. IN LIGHT OF THIS, I
DROPPED THE TSRA MENTION DOWN FROM VCTS TO PROB30 FOR THOSE TWO
SITES. TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF LIFR/IFR VIS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
40KT.
OUTLOOK: A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY, BUT GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS IT MAY STALL ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH MONDAY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, THE TSRA RISK WOULD LINGER
ALONG THE COAST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HOWEVER, EVEN
IN THAT SCENARIO, THE RISK MAY REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE TAF
SITES.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THIS MORNING, THEN SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THIS LOW, ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS.
THE INLAND RIVERS AND SOUND AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WILL
STILL HAVE A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, BUT THE RISK LOOKS A
BIT LOWER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE LOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG, THEREFORE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25KT FOR MOST
WATERS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS WHERE
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT CAN BE EXPECTED WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL
BE THE STRONGEST. FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS OF
2-3FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS, SEAS OF 3-5FT ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE ENC WATERS ON
SUNDAY, BUT MAY STALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. WHERE THE
FRONT STALLS IS WHERE THE THUNDERSTORM RISK WILL BE THE HIGHEST
THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG WINDS OF 40KT+ AND WATERSPOUTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. EVENTUALLY THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH WINDS LAYING DOWN. SEAS
OF 2-4FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, BUT THEN ARE EXPECTED TO
LAY DOWN TO AROUND 2FT BY TUESDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
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