651
FXUS62 KMHX 221905
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
305 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED POPS AND TSTORM CHANCES FOR COASTAL ZONES SUN
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT FOR COASTAL AREAS SUN AFTERNOON.
DRIER INLAND AND NORTHERN AREAS.
2) A THUNDERSTORM RISK, SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE, FOR MON
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL AREAS AGAIN.
3) PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER FOR TUE, BUT THEN MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN MAY RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. WITH A
SEABREEZE PINNED EAST OF HWY 17, THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ACT IN
TANDEM TO PRODUCE SCT THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR,
AS 2,600+ J/KG OF CAPE AND 25-30+ KT OF SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE.
HAVE INC POPS NEAR THE COAST TO 40-60%, WHILE INTERIOR ZONES ARE
IN THE 10-20% RANGE. BEST CHANCE OF SVR STORMS WILL BE EAST OF
HWY 17 STRETCHING FROM AROUND RICHLANDS TO NEW BERN TO ENGLEHARD.
WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS, A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT MAY
MATERIALIZE, AS PW'S ARE STILL IN THE 90TH OR HIGHER PERCENTILE
RANGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SIMILAR SETUP FOR MON, AS AREA IS ON EAST SIDE
OF BROAD LEVEL TROUGHING WITH YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGING
THROUGH AND FRONT HUNG UP NEAR THE COAST INTERACTING WITH
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. EFI FOR CAPE/SHEAR IS AROUND THE 80TH
PERCENTILE, SUGGESTING A SEVERE RISK IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND
ORGANIZE. BEST CHANCES AGAIN FOR EASTERN ZONESW.
KEY MESSAGE 3...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EAST AND FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY TUE BUT
THEN DAMPEN WITH RETURN OF SSWRLY FLOW AND MOISTURE OFF THE GOM.
THIS WILL BRING MORE UNSETTLED WX BACK TO ENC IN THE FORM OF
SHBOWERS AND STORMS WITH POPS BACK INTO THE 40-60% RANGE,
PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO, ESP FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS
WARM/HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE WITH RESPECT TO IFR/LIFR
FG OR LOW STRATUS. HAVE SIDED WITH PERSISTENCE AGAIN AND
A MORE PESSIMISTIC FCST THAN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE, WHICH HAS LOW
CHANCES OF IFR/LIFR. WITH NO REAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED, AND WITH CALM WINDS/MO SKC SKIES
TONIGHT, FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN FOR THE
COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF LOW CIGS AND FG
FOR ISO AND PGV, WHILE KEWN AND KOAJ HAVE A SOMEWHAT LESSER
CHANCE OF THESE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
ANY FOG OR LOW STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE IN THE MORNING, LEADING TO
VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON, ESP OAJ AND EWN AND MAY NEED TO MENTION THIS THREAT
IN FUTURE UPDATES.
OUTLOOK (SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU): MAINLY VFR, THOUGH PATCHY
FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS FOR WED INTO LATE WEEK, WITH TEMPO REDUCTIONS IN CIGS
AND VSBY.
MARINE
OCNL TSRA WILL RIDE UP OVER THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT, PRODUCING
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE, SWRLY
WINDS REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT THROUGH
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK (SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU): CONT WRLY TO SWRLY WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BUT SPEEDS WILL CONT IN THE 5-15 KT
RANGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...TL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page