079
FXUS62 KMHX 230536
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
136 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT FOR COASTAL AREAS SUN AFTERNOON.
DRIER INLAND AND NORTHERN AREAS.
2) A THUNDERSTORM RISK, SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE, FOR MON
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL AREAS AGAIN.
3) PERHAPS SOME DRIER WEATHER FOR TUE, BUT THEN MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN MAY RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. WITH A
SEABREEZE PINNED EAST OF HWY 17, THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ACT IN
TANDEM TO PRODUCE SCT THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR,
AS 2,600+ J/KG OF CAPE AND 25-30+ KT OF SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE.
HAVE INC POPS NEAR THE COAST TO 40-60%, WHILE INTERIOR ZONES ARE
IN THE 10-20% RANGE. BEST CHANCE OF SVR STORMS WILL BE EAST OF
HWY 17 STRETCHING FROM AROUND RICHLANDS TO NEW BERN TO ENGELHARD.
WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS, A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT MAY
MATERIALIZE, AS PW'S ARE STILL IN THE 90TH OR HIGHER PERCENTILE
RANGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SIMILAR SETUP FOR MON, AS AREA IS ON EAST SIDE
OF BROAD LEVEL TROUGHING WITH YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGING
THROUGH AND FRONT HUNG UP NEAR THE COAST INTERACTING WITH
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. EFI FOR CAPE/SHEAR IS AROUND THE 80TH
PERCENTILE, SUGGESTING A SEVERE RISK IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AND
ORGANIZE. BEST CHANCES AGAIN FOR EASTERN ZONES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EAST AND FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY TUE BUT
THEN DAMPEN WITH RETURN OF SSWRLY FLOW AND MOISTURE OFF THE GOM.
THIS WILL BRING MORE UNSETTLED WX BACK TO ENC IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH POPS BACK INTO THE 40-60% RANGE,
PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE BACK TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO, ESP FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS
WARM/HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS IS BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING, AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL HAVE A LIMITING EFFECT ON STRATUS AND REDUCED VIS
OVERNIGHT. IN LIGHT OF THIS, THE TAFS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO SHOW
A MORE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR VIS AT TIMES, BUT THE RISK OF LONGER-
LASTING IFR, OR LOWER, CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE DECREASING.
ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THEN STALL.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE
COAST, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TSRA RISK JUST EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. IT MAY BE CLOSE FOR KOAJ AND KEWN, BUT GIVEN THE REDUCED
RISK, THE PROB30S HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM BOTH SITES FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK: A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE FRONT MAY GET PULLED
WEST A BIT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COUPLE OF LOWS RIDE NORTH
ALONG IT. THIS WOULD UP THE TSRA RISK SOME, ESPECIALLY FROM KOAJ
TO KEWN. A RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY TSRA
RISK AS WELL.
MARINE
OCNL TSRA WILL RIDE UP OVER THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT, PRODUCING
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. OTHERWISE, SWRLY
WINDS REMAIN IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT THROUGH
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK (SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU): CONT WRLY TO SWRLY WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK, BUT SPEEDS WILL CONT IN THE 5-15 KT
RANGE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TL
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...TL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page