977
FXUS62 KMHX 230711
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
311 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST OR MESSAGING CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT FOR COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
2) A THUNDERSTORM RISK, SOME POTENTIALLY SEVERE, MONDAY
AFTERNOON EAST OF HWY 17
3) REDUCED THUNDERSTORM RISK POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING BY LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY, THEN STALL ALONG THE COAST AS FRONTAL FORCING
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NE WELL AWAY FROM THE REGION. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE SEABREEZE AND THE STALLED
FRONT WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
FOCUSED RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FORCING WILL BE AIDED
BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND JET ENTRANCE REGION
DYNAMICS. MEANWHILE, AND AREA OF MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL OVERSPREAD A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. HEATING OF
THIS AIRMASS SHOULD YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPE OF AROUND 2000 J/KG. WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
BE WEAK, MODEST MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 25-30K, FAVORING ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. WHILE THE FRONT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY REMOVED FROM THE STRONGEST SHEAR, SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROTATING
UPDRAFTS/LOOSELY ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS.
WHILE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP SUPPORT DCAPE OF 1000J/KG+ AND
AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS, IT MAY ALSO IMPACT
THE SUSTENANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION. THAT SAID, THE SETUP APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A FEW LONGER-LIVED CELLS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS. IF ANY SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFT CAN DEVELOP,
THERE COULD ALSO BE A RISK OF HAIL. WHILE THE CONVECTIVE RISK
SHOULD PRIMARILY BE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN, THE FRONT IN THE AREA PLUS
PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW A LOW-END THUNDERSTORM
RISK THROUGH THE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A WEAK
SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT THAT SHOULD BE
STALLED ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. IN FACT, AS
THE LOW LIFTS THROUGH, IT MAY PULL THE FRONT BACK TO THE WEST
SLIGHTLY. ONCE AGAIN, MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. ONE
POTENTIAL DIFFERENCE ON MONDAY IS THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY GET
A SLIGHT BOOST ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS MAY OPEN
THE DOOR FOR A SLIGHTLY IMPROVED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOOSELY
ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS. AT MINIMUM, IT SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED
RISK OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS. WITH THE FRONT POTENTIALLY
GETTING PULLED WEST SOME, THE CONVECTIVE RISK MAY ALSO EXPAND
WEST SOME AND NOT BE CONFINED TO THE COAST ONLY. THAT SAID, IT
STILL APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF HWY 17. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS ADDED A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES. ONCE AGAIN, THE PRIMARY RISK LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. BUT, ANY ROTATING UPDRAFT WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAFFLING SOME ON WHETHER OR
NOT THE AIRMASS CAN FULLY DRY OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY FRONT MAY STILL BE STALLED NEARBY. WHILE THE
CONVECTIVE RISK MAY NOT COMPLETELY DROP OFF, IT LOOKS LIKE IT
MAY BE REDUCED FOR A DAY OR TWO. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THEN
BEGIN TO REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS IS BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING, AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT THIS
WILL HAVE A LIMITING EFFECT ON STRATUS AND REDUCED VIS
OVERNIGHT. IN LIGHT OF THIS, THE TAFS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO SHOW
A MORE OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR VIS AT TIMES, BUT THE RISK OF LONGER-
LASTING IFR, OR LOWER, CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE DECREASING.
ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND THEN STALL.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE
COAST, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE TSRA RISK JUST EAST OF THE TAF
SITES. IT MAY BE CLOSE FOR KOAJ AND KEWN, BUT GIVEN THE REDUCED
RISK, THE PROB30S HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM BOTH SITES FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK: A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE FRONT MAY GET PULLED
WEST A BIT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A COUPLE OF LOWS RIDE NORTH
ALONG IT. THIS WOULD UP THE TSRA RISK SOME, ESPECIALLY FROM KOAJ
TO KEWN. A RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY TSRA
RISK AS WELL.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO ENC TODAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A COUPLE OF WEAK AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE ARE THEN FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT
TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BACKGROUND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
STRONGEST EARLY THIS MORNING (SW AT 10-20KT). THE GRADIENT WILL
THEN RELAX SOME AS THE FRONT MOVES IN AND STALLS. VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE PAIR OF LOWS MOVE THROUGH, BUT
NEITHER LOW LOOKS ALL THAT STRONG.
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS OF 2-4FT ARE EXPECTED TODAY,
HIGHEST THIS MORNING. SEAS OF 2-3FT ARE THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK: WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY FOR A BRIEF TIME ON
TUESDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
AND LASTING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY
HOLD AROUND 2-3FT THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN BUILD TO 3-5FT LATE IN
THE WEEK. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DECREASE SOME TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
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