188
FXUS62 KMHX 232342
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
742 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST OR MESSAGING CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT FOR COASTAL AREAS REMAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. MONDAY'S THREAT MAY
IMPACT AREAS FARTHER INLAND.
2) REDUCED THUNDERSTORM RISK POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING BY LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE COAST
AS OVERALL FORCING WEAKENS AND SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.
WITH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE AND
DRY AIR ALOFT, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING FOR
THE REST OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER, SOME OVERNIGHT REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN
THE AREA, AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT. OVERALL
MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP AS THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE OVERALL
FLOODING THREAT IS COMPARATIVELY LOWER.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAK SURFACE LOW LIFTING NE ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOMORROW (THE LOW MAY ACTUALLY SUBTLY PULL
THE BOUNDARY FARTHER INLAND AS IT PROGRESSES). OVERALL PRE-STORM
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SIMILAR TOMORROW, SANS A MODEST UPTICK IN
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. THIS MAY PROVIDE A
MARGINALLY BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. IF THE
FRONT DOES GET PULLED WEST, THE CONVECTIVE RISK WILL ALSO FOLLOW
SUIT. THE GREATEST RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS EAST OF HWY 17 WITH DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING THE PRIMARY
THREAT, WITH HAIL POSSIBLE IN SUPERCELLS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GUIDANCE STILL STRUGGLING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE
AIRMASS CAN FULLY DRY OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS OUR CURRENT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE STALLED NEARBY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE FAR
SPARSER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THEN
BEGIN TO REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT BUT MODESTLY
DRIER AIR RAISES UNCERTAINTY ON FOG AND LOW STRATUS COVERAGE. AT
LEAST SOME ISOLATED COVERAGE APPEARS PROBABLE BUT KEPT SUB-VFR
CIG MENTIONS AT SCT GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE. ADDED PROB30
MENTIONS FOR TSRA FOR ISO, EWN, OAJ FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. KEPT PGV
OUT OF IT FOR NOW GIVEN THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE EAST OF
PGV AND DRY AIR MAY PREVENT TSRA FROM REACHING THE TERMINAL.
OUTLOOK: A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE FRONT MAY GET PULLED
WEST A BIT TOMORROW AND TUESDAY AS A COUPLE OF LOWS RIDE NORTH
ALONG IT. THIS WOULD UP THE TSRA RISK SOME, ESPECIALLY FROM KOAJ
TO KEWN. A RISK OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY TSRA
RISK AS WELL.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AREA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, STALLING
ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A COUPLE OF WEAK
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE THEN FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, FAVORING PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. VARYING WIND DIRECTIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE PAIR OF LOWS MOVE THROUGH, BUT NEITHER LOW
LOOKS ALL THAT STRONG.
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS OF 2-3 FT ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY FOR A BRIEF TIME ON
TUESDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
AND LASTING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY
HOLD AROUND 2-3FT THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN BUILD TO 3-5FT LATE IN
THE WEEK. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DECREASE SOME TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/MS
AVIATION...RM/MS/RJ
MARINE...RM/MS
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