455
FXUS62 KMHX 240947
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
547 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
AVIATION DISCO UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE THREAT IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BEST
CHANCES FOR COASTAL AREAS, THOUGH COASTAL PLAIN ZONES MAY SEE
SOME STRONGER STORMS AS WELL. GREATEST THREATS WILL BE STRONG
WINDS GUSTS, PERIODS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL.
2) REDUCED THUNDERSTORM RISK IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW, WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNING BY LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WEAK SFC LOW SLOWLY LIFTING NE ALONG THE
FRONT FROM SERN NC WILL NUDGE THE BOUNDARY FROM THE COAST TOWARD
THE I95 CORRIDOR. OVERALL PRE- STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY: AMPLE INSTABILITY, SUPPORT ALOFT WITH
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE STOUT TROUGH ALOFT
OVER NECONUS, AND ADDITIONAL BUMP IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS THANKS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW TO SW. THIS
MAY PROVIDE A MARGINALLY BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. IF THE FRONT DOES GET PULLED WEST AS SOME HIRES
SOLUTIONS EXIST, THE CONVECTIVE RISK WILL ALSO FOLLOW SUIT. THE
GREATEST RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS E OF HWY
17 WITH DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING THE PRIMARY THREAT, WITH HAIL
POSSIBLE IN SUPERCELLS. BECAUSE OF THIS, SPC HAS THE BULK OF THE
AREA IN SOME SORT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK, COASTAL ZONES ARE
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK (LVL 2/5) WITH COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES UNDER
A MARGINAL RISK (LVL 1/5). SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER COASTAL
PLAIN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING AND WANING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS AFTERNOON, CHANCES INCREASED QUICKLY OVER THE COAST
AND SLOWLY PROGRESSING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE BULK OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN THE LAST SHORTWAVE PUSHES
OFF THE COAST AND SFC LOW DEPARTING TO THE NE, LEADING TO A LESS
CONDUCIVE FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE COLUMN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GUIDANCE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH A DRIER PERIOD FOR TUE AND WED, WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHERE OFFSHORE NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. HOWEVER, ISO STORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CRYSTAL COAST SEABREEZE LOCALES.
WED, SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE KICKING OFF A PERIOD OF
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COASTLINE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR LATE-WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
# --- AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN APPENDED TO EWN TAFS AS THE SITE IS
NOT TRANSMITTING THROUGH NORMAL CHANNELS. THE SITE IS STILL
REPORTING VIA TELEPHONE SO IT WILL BE MONITORED, BUT NOT AS
FREQUENTLY AS WHEN IT IS COMPLETELY OPERATIONAL. THE NEXT
CLOSEST ASOS IS AT CHERRY POINT (KNKT). --- #
VFR FLIGHT CATS AT ISSUANCE OF TAFS, BUT CONFIDENCE OF SEEING
SUBVFR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS
TAF CYCLES. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PRESENT
OVERNIGHT SAVE FOR DEBRIS CLOUDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. GUIDANCE
SHOWS BEST CHANCES FOR SUBVFR WITH SOME STRATUS AND FOG
POTENTIAL SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SW. HAVE INCLUDED
PREVAILING MVFR WITH TEMPO IFR FOR OAJ. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR EWN
SO ONLY HAVE A TEMPO MVFR GROUP HERE. CONTINUE MENTION OF PROB30
GROUPS FOR TSRA FOR ALL TAF SITES. INLAND SITES MAY SEE SOME
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING W TO E. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE COASTAL SITES AND THEN PUSHING
INLAND INTO THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK: A FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY MORNING, WHEN A LOW TRAVELING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY BE N OF THE FA, DRAGGING THE FRONT OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD
UP THE TSRA RISK SOME, ESPECIALLY FROM KOAJ TO KEWN. A RISK OF
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS WOULD ACCOMPANY ANY TSRA RISK AS WELL.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT REMAINS STALLED OVER ENC TODAY, BUT WILL GET
SHUNTED TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS ALONG IT. PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. VARYING WIND
DIRECTIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE PAIR OF LOWS MOVE THROUGH, BUT
NEITHER LOW LOOKS ALL THAT STRONG.
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS OF 2-3 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TODAY.
OUTLOOK: WINDS WILL BECOME NERLY FOR A BRIEF TIME ON TUESDAY
BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND
LASTING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD
AROUND 2-3FT THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN BUILD TO 3-5FT LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DECREASE SOME TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MS/CEB
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...MS/CEB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page