453
FXUS62 KMHX 241839
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
239 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE THREAT REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,
WITH BEST CHANCES CONFINED ALONG THE COAST BUT AN ISOLATED
THREAT POSSIBLE FURTHER INLAND. GREATEST THREATS WILL BE
DAMANGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS CAPABLE OF CAUSING
FLASH FLOODING. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND A
TORNADO.
2) REDUCED THUNDERSTORM RISK IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW, WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNING BY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS FRONT WOBBLES BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW OVER THE SC PEE DEE REGION, GRADUALLY LIFTING ALONG A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
CAROLINAS. ALOFT, STOUT MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH
A PARTICULARLY STRONG SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND ITS BASE THIS
AFTERNOON.
AFTER SOME SURPRISINGLY STRONG CONVECTION THIS MORNING, EASTERN
NC HAS CLEARED OUT NICELY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. 18Z
MHX RAOB MEASURED MLCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG AND A WHOPPING 6500 J/KG
SURFACE-BASED, PLUS EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 45 KT. ALL TOLD, THIS
POINTS TO A MORE FAVORABLE PRE- STORM ENVIRONMENT THAN
YESTERDAY, FAVORING A COMBINATION OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND
SUPERCELLS (LOCAL RAOB MEASURED A SUPERCELL COMPOSITE OF 18.7
AND AN STP OF 2.1). DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR
ALL MODES WITH CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT INFERRING DCAPES OF
1200+ J/KG. SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO POSE A HAIL RISK. SUPERCELL
INTERACTIONS WITH SEA/SOUND BREEZES AND REMNANT OUTFLOW FROM
MORNING CONVECTION COULD ALSO SPIN UP A TORNADO.
SPC HAS MAINTAINED MOST OF THE OUTER BANKS AND COASTAL LOCALES
DOWN TO THE SC BORDER IN A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/5) RISK, WITH A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FARTHER INLAND. GIVEN THIS MORNING'S
CONVECTION AND RESULTING STABILIZATION, THE HIGHEST RISK HAS NOW
SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, FOCUSED FROM ROUGHLY NEW BERN SW
TOWARDS THE NC/SC STATE LINE. CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY FROM
17Z THROUGH 23Z TODAY, WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY DISSIPATING
AFTER SUNSET. ANY REMNANT ACTIVITY SHOULD FULLY DISSIPATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHEN THE LAST SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND SFC
LOW DEPARTING TO THE NE, LEADING TO A LESS CONDUCIVE FLOW
PATTERN THROUGH THE COLUMN.
PWATS ARE DOWN SLIGHTLY BUT GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER TORRENTIAL RAINFALL COULD ONCE AGAIN POSE A
FLASH FLOODING RISK, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TOMORROW WILL BE
PRIMARILY DRY WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE ON
AREA BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY, SURFACE FLOW
BECOMES MORE ONSHORE KICKING OFF A PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE WITH A
MODEST UPTICK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, PULLING IT BACK TOWARDS THE COAST
AND PROVIDING A BETTER FOCAL POINT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
# --- AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN APPENDED TO EWN TAFS AS THE SITE IS
NOT TRANSMITTING THROUGH NORMAL CHANNELS. THE SITE IS STILL
REPORTING VIA TELEPHONE SO IT WILL BE MONITORED, BUT NOT AS
FREQUENTLY AS WHEN IT IS COMPLETELY OPERATIONAL. THE NEXT
CLOSEST ASOS IS AT CHERRY POINT (KNKT). --- #
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH
AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 00Z
AS SURFACE LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. ALL TERMINALS COULD
SEE DIRECT IMPACTS BUT HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE FOR EWN AND
OAJ. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT
AS WELL AS SOME HAIL. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FALLS OFF
CONSIDERABLY AFTER 00Z, WITH THE AREA BECOMING COMPLETELY DRY BY
04-05Z.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN SET THE STAGE
FOR A LOCALIZED LOW STRATUS AND FOG THREAT EARLY TUES AM,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH A MODEST
UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY IN
INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW. FRONT GETS PULLED BACK INLAND
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION, BEING PULLED BACK
AND FORTH BY WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING ALONG IT.
QUIET CONDITIONS ONGOING TODAY WITH SEAS AROUND 2-3 FEET WITH A
12-13 SECOND PERIOD PEEKING THROUGH WIND CHOP, WHILE WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS. LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY, ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM RISK
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ACTIVITY GETS KICKED
UP ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND ALSO PRODUCE HAIL.
OUTLOOK: WINDS WILL BECOME NERLY FOR A BRIEF TIME ON TUESDAY
BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND
LASTING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD
AROUND 2-3FT THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN BUILD TO 3-5FT LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DECREASE SOME TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MS/CEB
AVIATION...TL/MS
MARINE...MS/CEB
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