219
FXUS62 KMHX 242343
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
743 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE THREAT HAS WINDED DOWN FOR THE EVENING AS STORMS HAVE
SHIFTED OFFSHORE.
2) REDUCED THUNDERSTORM RISK IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW, WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNING BY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS FRONT WOBBLES BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STORMS HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND NO LONGER POSE
ANY IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS SET UP
OVER MUCH OF ENC, AND THIS KEEPS ANY ADDITIONAL STORM FORMATION
UNLIKELY OVER LAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TOMORROW WILL BE
PRIMARILY DRY WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE ON
AREA BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY, SURFACE FLOW
BECOMES MORE ONSHORE KICKING OFF A PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE WITH A
MODEST UPTICK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, PULLING IT BACK TOWARDS THE COAST
AND PROVIDING A BETTER FOCAL POINT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
# --- AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN APPENDED TO EWN TAFS AS THE SITE IS
NOT TRANSMITTING THROUGH NORMAL CHANNELS. THE SITE IS STILL
REPORTING VIA TELEPHONE SO IT WILL BE MONITORED, BUT NOT AS
FREQUENTLY AS WHEN IT IS COMPLETELY OPERATIONAL. THE NEXT
CLOSEST ASOS IS AT CHERRY POINT (KNKT). --- #
STORMS HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE AND NO LONGER POSE A THREAT TO
TERMINALS. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN SET
THE STAGE FOR A LOCALIZED LOW STRATUS AND FOG THREAT EARLY TUES
AM, ESPECIALLY FOR EWN AND OAJ, WHO SAW RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TOMORROW
AS FRONT SITS JUST OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK: MODEST UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY IN INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW. FRONT GETS PULLED BACK
INLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION, BEING PULLED BACK
AND FORTH BY WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING ALONG IT.
QUIET CONDITIONS ONGOING TODAY WITH SEAS AROUND 2-3 FEET WITH A
12-13 SECOND PERIOD PEEKING THROUGH WIND CHOP, WHILE WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS. LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY, ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM RISK
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ACTIVITY GETS KICKED
UP ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND ALSO PRODUCE HAIL.
OUTLOOK: WINDS WILL BECOME NERLY FOR A BRIEF TIME ON TUESDAY
BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND
LASTING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD
AROUND 2-3FT THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN BUILD TO 3-5FT LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DECREASE SOME TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MS/CEB/RJ
AVIATION...TL/MS/RJ
MARINE...MS/CEB
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