208
FXUS62 KMHX 250532
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
132 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR DUPLIN AND INLAND ONSLOW
COUNTY ZONES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AVIATION DISCO UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WILL REDUCE VIS ACROSS THE BULK OF
ENC, AND MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCALES THAT SAW
A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN MON. PLAN ACCORDINGLY FOR MORNING
COMMUTE.
2) REDUCED THUNDERSTORM RISK IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW, WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNING BY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS FRONT WOBBLES BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DECOUPLED WINDS AT THE SFC, CLEAR SKIES, MOIST
LOW LEVELS, AND SATURATED SOILS FROM MON'S RAIN HAS ALREADY LED
TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER SWERN ZONES OF THE FA. OBS IN DUPLIN AND
INLAND ONSLOW COUNTY HAVE SHOWN THAT VIS HAS ALREADY REACHED
LESS THAN 1MI, 1/4MI IN SOME SPOTS. HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
NWARD AND EWARD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ENCROACH FROM THE W LATER TONIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP
CUT DOWN ON FOG. SUNRISE WILL AID IN BURNING OFF THE FOG, BUT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CALM INTO MID MORNING, SO FOG WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TOMORROW WILL BE
PRIMARILY DRY WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE ON
AREA BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY, SURFACE FLOW
BECOMES MORE ONSHORE KICKING OFF A PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE WITH A
MODEST UPTICK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, PULLING IT BACK TOWARDS THE COAST
AND PROVIDING A BETTER FOCAL POINT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
# --- AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN APPENDED TO EWN TAFS AS THE SITE IS
NOT TRANSMITTING THROUGH NORMAL CHANNELS. THE SITE IS STILL
REPORTING VIA TELEPHONE SO IT WILL BE MONITORED, BUT NOT AS
FREQUENTLY AS WHEN IT IS COMPLETELY OPERATIONAL. THE NEXT
CLOSEST ASOS IS AT CHERRY POINT (KNKT). --- #
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN SET THE STAGE
FOR A LOCALIZED LOW STRATUS AND FOG THREAT, AND THIS HAS ALREADY
BEGUN WITH ALL TAF SITES BUT PGV CURRENTLY SHOWING LIFR OR
VLIFR. PGV WILL LIKELY GO IFR OR LOWER WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ENCROACH FROM THE W LATER
TONIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP IMPROVE VIS FROM AROUND 10Z ONWARD.
SUNRISE WILL AID IN BURNING OFF THE FOG, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CALM INTO MID MORNING, SO FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH 12Z. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TUES AS FRONT SITS JUST OFFSHORE LEADING TO
VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AFTER FOG SCATTERS
OUT.
OUTLOOK: MODEST UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY IN INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW. FRONT GETS PULLED BACK
INLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION, BEING PULLED BACK
AND FORTH BY WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING ALONG IT.
QUIET CONDITIONS ONGOING TODAY WITH SEAS AROUND 2-3 FEET WITH A
12-13 SECOND PERIOD PEEKING THROUGH WIND CHOP, WHILE WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS. LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED IN THESE CONDITIONS TODAY, ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM RISK
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ACTIVITY GETS KICKED
UP ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONGER STORMS
COULD PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND ALSO PRODUCE HAIL.
OUTLOOK: WINDS WILL BECOME NERLY FOR A BRIEF TIME ON TUESDAY
BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND
LASTING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD
AROUND 2-3FT THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN BUILD TO 3-5FT LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DECREASE SOME TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ090-198.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MS/CEB/RJ
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...MS/CEB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page