341
FXUS62 KMHX 251015
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
615 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN TRIMMED, ONLY ACTIVE FOR ONSLOW
COUNTY NOW. SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 0900, BUT WILL PROBABLY BE
ABLE TO DROPPED EARLY.
AVIATION DISCO UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WILL REDUCE VIS ACROSS THE BULK OF
ENC, AND MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCALES THAT SAW
A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN MON. PLAN ACCORDINGLY FOR MORNING
COMMUTE.
2) REDUCED THUNDERSTORM RISK IS EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW, WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNING BY THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS FRONT WOBBLES BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DECOUPLED WINDS AT THE SFC, CLEAR SKIES, MOIST
LOW LEVELS, AND SATURATED SOILS FROM MON'S RAIN LED TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER SWERN ZONES OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. OBS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY IMPROVING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS DRIER HAS
ENTERED THE FA CARRIED BY LIGHT NWERLY BREEZE. SUNRISE WILL AID
IN BURNING OFF THE FOG, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CALM
INTO MID MORNING, SO FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TODAY WILL BE
PRIMARILY DRY WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE ON
AREA BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT CARRYING LESS THAN 15% POP
OVER LAND AREAS. ON WEDNESDAY, SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE
ONSHORE, KICKING OFF A PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE WITH A MODEST
UPTICK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT ALONG THE OFFSHORE FRONT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, PULLING IT BACK TOWARDS THE COAST AND PROVIDING A
BETTER FOCAL POINT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA SAT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND SAT'S FRONT ON SUN.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
# --- AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN APPENDED TO EWN TAFS AS THE SITE IS
NOT TRANSMITTING THROUGH NORMAL CHANNELS. THE SITE IS STILL
REPORTING VIA TELEPHONE SO IT WILL BE MONITORED, BUT NOT AS
FREQUENTLY AS WHEN IT IS COMPLETELY OPERATIONAL. THE NEXT
CLOSEST ASOS IS AT CHERRY POINT (KNKT). --- #
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LED TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT,
BUT VIS HAS GRADUALLY IMPROVED WITH DRIER AIR BEING CARRIED INTO
THE FA IN A LIGHT NWERLY BREEZE BEHIND THE FRONT, NOW OFFSHORE.
SUNRISE WILL FURTHER AID IN BURNING OFF THE FOG. DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS FRONT SITS
JUST OFFSHORE LEADING TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY AFTER FOG SCATTERS
OUT.
OUTLOOK: MODEST UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY IN INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW. FRONT GETS PULLED BACK
INLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT TO CROSS
THE FA SAT.
MARINE
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION, BEING PULLED BACK
AND FORTH BY WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSING ALONG IT.
QUIET CONDITIONS ONGOING TODAY WITH SEAS AROUND 2-3 FEET WITH A
12-13 SECOND PERIOD PEEKING THROUGH WIND CHOP, WHILE NERLY WINDS
AOB 10KT VEER TO BECOME MORE EERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, AND
LASTS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD
AROUND 2-3FT THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN BUILD TO 3-5FT LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY INCREASES FROM WED ONWARD
WHEN ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES THE STALLED BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE BACK TOWARD THE COAST. ANOTHER FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND IT THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ198.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MS/CEB
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...MS/CEB
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