335
FXUS62 KMHX 251905
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
305 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST INTO THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STALLED FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TOMORROW
KEEPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM RISK LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
FRONT WOBBLES BACK TOWARDS THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD FRONT IS STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF ENC WITH
LIGHT N'RLY FLOW BRINGING DRY AND "RELATIVELY" COOLER AIR OVER
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS HAVE GOTTEN INTO THE 80S TODAY
THOUGH IT IS LESS HUMID THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
AS WE GET INTO TONIGHT, WINDS LOOK TO ONCE AGAIN DECOUPLE UNDER
MO CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH SLIDES
E'WARDS TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ENC ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT SAW
RAIN ON MONDAY. GIVEN THIS, WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS TONIGHT AFTER ABOUT MIDNIGHT.
LATEST SOUNDING DATA FOR THIS EVENING DOES LOOK SUPPORTIVE FOR
FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT GIVEN A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION TO DEVELOP THUS TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. WILL NOTE THERE IS ONE THING WORKING AGAINST FOG/LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING WHICH WOULD BE THE CONTINUED
ADVECTION OF DRY AIR TODAY. FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY HAVE CAPPED VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES MAINLY ALONG THE
CRYSTAL COAST AND LEFT PATCHY FOG IN AREAS I HAVE THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN FOR NOW. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS EITHER UP OR DOWN
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY TO VISIBILITY TONIGHT DEPENDING ON
TRENDS. OTHERWISE LOWS TONIGHT GET INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. ON WEDNESDAY, SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE, KICKING
OFF A PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE WITH A MODEST UPTICK OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS A WEAK
FRONT NORTHWARDS TOWARDS ENC.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
LIFT ALONG THE SAME FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, PULLING IT
FURTHER NORTH INTO ENC AND PROVIDING A BETTER FOCAL POINT FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF A SECOND
FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA BY SAT. GIVEN THE MULTIPLE
DAYS OF ONSHORE FLOW, PWATS DO RETURN BACK CLOSER TO 2" FROM
THURS ONWARDS AND WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE BUT A LACK OF
SHEAR, A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS AREN'T COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE QUESTION THOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION TO
THIS, ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE AN
EFFICIENT RAINMAKER BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND A LOW END
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND SAT'S FRONT ON SUN
BRINGING A RETURN BACK TO MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE SEABREEZE. TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
# --- AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN APPENDED TO EWN TAFS AS THE SITE IS
NOT TRANSMITTING THROUGH NORMAL CHANNELS. THE SITE IS STILL
REPORTING VIA TELEPHONE SO IT WILL BE MONITORED, BUT NOT AS
FREQUENTLY AS WHEN IT IS COMPLETELY OPERATIONAL. THE NEXT
CLOSEST ASOS IS AT CHERRY POINT (KNKT). --- #
EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS ALL OF ENC THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT N'RLY WINDS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST GETS TRICKY AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM AND SKIES REMAIN MO CLEAR. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALSO STICKING AROUND PATCHY FOG IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. WHILE GUIDANCE HAS A LIMITED THREAT FOR FOG WITH HREF
PROBS GENERALLY AROUND 20-40% WITH HIGHEST PROBS AROUND THE
CRYSTAL COAST PATTERN RECOGNITION WISE SUGGESTS FOG IS AT LEAST
POSSIBLE. SO FOR NOW HAVE ADDED IN A 5SM LINE FOR THE OAJ/EWN
TAFS WHERE I HAVE THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY FOG FROM 07-12Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
FORECAST SO CHANGES EITHER OPTIMISTIC OR PESSIMISTIC WITH
REGARDS TO THE FOG THREAT MAY NEED TO BE MADE IN COMING UPDATES.
AS WE GET INTO WED MORNING, REGARDLESS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN AFTER SUNRISE AND REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO WED AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: MODEST UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY IN INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW. FRONT GETS PULLED BACK
INLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT TO CROSS
THE FA SAT.
MARINE
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS N'RLY WINDS AT
5-10 KTS SLOWLY VEER BECOMING E AND THEN SE'RLY AT 5-10 KTS BY WED
MORNING ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS. WINDS THEN REMAIN SE'RLY AT ABOUT 5-
10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY
STALLED TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT N'WARDS. SEAS REMAIN AT 2-4 FT
THROUGH WED EVENING. WHILE IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MAINLY DRY AND
THUNDERSTORM FREE ACROSS OUR WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CHANCES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WED AS A WEAK FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT
N'WARDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.
OUTLOOK: SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE FROM WED NIGHT INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRI
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT CLOSER TO 10-20 KTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KTS. WINDS THEN EASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS BRINGS A
LOW END CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR SCA HEADLINES CURRENTLY. SEAS SHOULD
GENERALLY HOLD AROUND 2-4FT THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN BUILD TO 3-5FT ON
FRI. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ELEVATED ON THURS, FRI, AND
SAT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES A STALLED BOUNDARY NORTH BACK
TOWARD THE COAST WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE AREA SAT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...CEB/RCF
MARINE...CEB/RCF
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