084
FXUS62 KMHX 260940
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
540 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THREAT OF SOME STRONGER STORMS THAT COULD BRING STRONG WINDS AND
POTENTIAL OF FLOODING RAIN ON FRI HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED.
AVIATION DISCO UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STALLED FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH TODAY, KEEPING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM RISK LOW.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
FRONT WOBBLES BACK TOWARDS THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FRONT REMAINS STALLED OFFSHORE TO THE S OF THE
FA. CONVECTION OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN BLOSSOMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY,
AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SURFACE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY WITH THE
SEABREEZE, KICKING OFF A PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TOMORROW ONWARDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE
WITH A MODEST UPTICK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OVER GA ALONG THE BOUNDARY
NUDGES THE FRONT TOWARD THE COAST AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
EXPECTING A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH A GENEROUS
15-20% POP HAS BEEN KEPT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ITERATIONS IN
TYPICAL SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER THE ALBEMARLE
PENINSULA AND CRYSTAL COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SECONUS IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY,
PUSHING THE BOUNDARY NORTH INTO ENC AND PROVIDING A BETTER
FOCAL POINT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
AHEAD OF A SECOND FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA BY SAT. GIVEN
THE MULTIPLE DAYS OF ONSHORE FLOW, PWATS DO RETURN BACK CLOSER
TO 2" TOMORROW ONWARDS. WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE, AND
SUBTLY INCREASING OF SHEAR, A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS
AREN'T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR FRI. IN ADDITION TO
THIS, ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE AN
EFFICIENT RAINMAKER, POTENTIALLY BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
AND A LOW END RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY IN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. AS SUCH, SPC HAS ADDED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
TSTORMS AND WPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR FRI WHILE THE FA IS WARM SECTORED WITH THE FRONT
THAT HAS BEEN OFFSHORE THEN BEING STALLED ALONG OR NEAR THE
APPMTS. RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN A FRONT PUSHED FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WHILE CROSS THE FA ON SAT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN BEHIND SAT'S FRONT ON SUN, BRINGING A RETURN BACK TO
MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE. TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. HEAT RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH LOW 90/MID 70S SPLITS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
# --- AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN APPENDED TO EWN TAFS AS THE SITE IS
NOT TRANSMITTING THROUGH NORMAL CHANNELS. THE SITE IS STILL
REPORTING VIA TELEPHONE SO IT WILL BE MONITORED, BUT NOT AS
FREQUENTLY AS WHEN IT IS COMPLETELY OPERATIONAL. THE NEXT
CLOSEST ASOS IS AT CHERRY POINT (KNKT). --- #
VFR FLIGHT CATS CURRENTLY WITH A CHANCE OF SOME MVFR VIS IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM AND SKIES REMAIN
MO CLEAR TONIGHT. WHILE GUIDANCE HAS A LIMITED THREAT FOR FOG,
SOME HANGING ON TO PERSISTENCE FORECAST PATTERNS FROM TUE NIGHT,
AND HREF PROBS GENERALLY AROUND 20-40% WITH HIGHEST PROBS
AROUND THE CRYSTAL COAST. HAVE KEPT MVFR MENTIONS FROM PREVIOUS
TAF ISSUANCE WITH A CAUTIOUS TEMPO IFR GROUP FOR OAJ. REGARDLESS
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN AFTER
SUNRISE AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK: FRONT GETS PULLED BACK INLAND LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT TO CROSS THE FA SAT.
MARINE
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH LIGHT EERLY EARLY
BECOMING MORE SEERLY TO AROUND 10-12KT IN THE AFTERNOON. STALLED
FRONT REMAINS S OF OUR WATERS WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
OCCURRINGTHROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN
SLOWLY LIFT TOWARD AREA WATERS AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE COAST
LATER TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN AT 2-4 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS.
OUTLOOK: SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE FROM WED NIGHT INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRI
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT CLOSER TO 10-20 KTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KTS. WINDS THEN EASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SUN. THIS BRINGS A LOW END CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS
MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
SCA HEADLINES CURRENTLY. SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD AROUND 2-4FT
THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN BUILD TO 3-5FT ON FRI. THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ELEVATED ON THURS, FRI, AND SAT AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES A STALLED BOUNDARY NORTH BACK TOWARD THE
COAST WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE AREA SAT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CEB/RCF
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