058
FXUS62 KMHX 261032
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
632 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THREAT OF SOME STRONGER STORMS THAT COULD BRING STRONG WINDS AND
POTENTIAL OF FLOODING RAIN ON FRI HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED.
AVIATION DISCO UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STALLED FRONT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH TODAY, KEEPING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM RISK LOW.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS EARLY THURSDAY AS LOW TRAVELS ALONG
STALLED FRONT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND IMPROVED DYNAMICS AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONT TO CROSS SAT LEADS TO INCREASED RISK OF
STRONGER STORMS FRI.
3) HEAT INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FRONT REMAINS STALLED OFFSHORE TO THE S OF THE
FA. CONVECTION OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN BLOSSOMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY,
AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SURFACE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY WITH THE
SEABREEZE, KICKING OFF A PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TOMORROW ONWARDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE
WITH A MODEST UPTICK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OVER GA ALONG THE BOUNDARY
NUDGES THE FRONT TOWARD THE COAST AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.
EXPECTING A DRY DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA THOUGH A GENEROUS
15-20% POP HAS BEEN KEPT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST ITERATIONS IN
TYPICAL SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER THE ALBEMARLE
PENINSULA AND CRYSTAL COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SECONUS IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ALONG THE STALLED FRONT IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THU, PUSHING THE BOUNDARY NORTH TOWARD, AND PERHAPS OVER,
THE ENC COAST, PROVIDING A BETTER FOCAL POINT FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF A SECOND
FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA BY SAT. GIVEN THE MULTIPLE DAYS
OF ONSHORE FLOW, PWATS DO RETURN BACK CLOSER TO 2" TOMORROW
ONWARDS. WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE, AND SUBTLY INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SHEAR AS TROUGH ALOFT OVER CAN DIGS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES, A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS AREN'T COMPLETELY OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR FRI. IN ADDITION TO THIS, ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE AN EFFICIENT RAINMAKER,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND A LOW END RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AS
SUCH, SPC HAS ADDED A MARGINAL RISK (LVL 1/5) OF SEVERE TSTORMS
AND WPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK (LVL 2/5) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR FRI WHILE THE FA IS WARM SECTORED WITH THE FRONT
THAT HAS BEEN OFFSHORE THEN BEING STALLED ALONG OR NEAR THE
APPMTS. RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN A FRONT PUSHED BY
THE DIGGING TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS THE FA ON
SAT. TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND SAT'S
FRONT ON SUN WITH RIDGING ALOFT IN PLACE OVER SECONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL PRECIP
CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE AS WELL AS RISING TEMPERATURES, LOW
90S/MID 70S SPLITS AND MAXAPPTS IN EXCESS OF 100DEG FROM TUES
ONWARD NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
# --- AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN APPENDED TO EWN TAFS AS THE SITE IS
NOT TRANSMITTING THROUGH NORMAL CHANNELS. THE SITE IS STILL
REPORTING VIA TELEPHONE SO IT WILL BE MONITORED, BUT NOT AS
FREQUENTLY AS WHEN IT IS COMPLETELY OPERATIONAL. THE NEXT
CLOSEST ASOS IS AT CHERRY POINT (KNKT). --- #
VFR FLIGHT CATS CURRENTLY THOUGH PATCH FOG IS IN PLACE OVER
SWERN ZONES. HAVE KEPT A COURTESY 1HR TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR FOG
OVER OAJ. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY WITH LIGHT SEERLY BREEZE DEVELOPING. OVERNIGHT,
STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE INCHES TOWARD THE COAST AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRAVELS NWARD FROM GA. IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THIS
WAVE WILL BE WORKING THROUGH THE FA OVER COASTAL ZONES,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES 6Z ONWARDS THU. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
MENTION AND PROB30 GROUPS FOR OAJ AND EWN IN THIS TIMEFRAME.
OUTLOOK: FRONT GETS PULLED BACK INLAND LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU
INTO FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT TO CROSS THE FA SAT.
MARINE
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH LIGHT EERLY EARLY
BECOMING MORE SEERLY TO AROUND 10-12KT IN THE AFTERNOON. STALLED
FRONT REMAINS S OF OUR WATERS WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
OCCURRING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN
SLOWLY LIFT TOWARD AREA WATERS AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE COAST
LATER TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN AT 2-4 FT THROUGH THIS EVENING. BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS.
OUTLOOK: SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE FROM WED NIGHT INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON THURS NIGHT INTO FRI
WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT CLOSER TO 10-20 KTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KTS. WINDS THEN EASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SUN. THIS BRINGS A LOW END CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS
MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
SCA HEADLINES CURRENTLY. SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY HOLD AROUND 2-4FT
THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN BUILD TO 3-5FT ON FRI. THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ELEVATED ON THURS, FRI, AND SAT AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES A STALLED BOUNDARY NORTH BACK TOWARD THE
COAST WITH ANOTHER FRONT CROSSING THE AREA SAT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CEB/RCF
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