472
FXUS62 KMHX 270932
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
532 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GENERAL FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME: ENTERING WET PATTERN, MAYBE
SOME SEVERE FRI, LITTLE WET, DRYING, AND THEN HOT.
STRONGER LONG PERIOD SWELL LEADS TO INCREASED RIP RISK ACROSS
ENC BEACHES (MOD RIP THREAT FOR ALL ENC BEACHES).
AVIATION DISCO UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN KICKS OFF TODAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRAVEL ALONG DISSIPATING FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS.
2) INCREASING MOISTURE AND IMPROVED DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT TO CROSS SAT LEADS TO INCREASED RISK OF STRONGER STORMS
FRI.
3) HEAT INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WEAKENING FRONT AND AND FIRST OF A FEW WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVE LIFTED NEWARDS LEADING TO INCREASED
MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS ENC. THE DISSIPATING FRONT
AND THE RESULTING SFC TROUGHING PRESENT ONCE THE FRONT HAS FULLY
WASHED OUT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER FOCAL POINT FOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF A SECOND FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. OUT OF ALL THE NEXT 3 OR 4
DAYS DAYS, THURS LOOKS TO HAVE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED IN NATURE, THOUGH THIS WILL STILL BE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIP CHANCES AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS WITH POPS GENERALLY
AROUND 30-50% THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURS. ACTIVITY ONGOING
ALONG THE OBX AND SEERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND THEN PUSH INLAND
AS THE DAY GOES ON. BIGGEST QUESTION MARKS FOR TODAY WILL BE
HOW FOCUSED ACTIVITY WILL BE, AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
BUILD THROUGH THE DAY. PWATS DO CREEP BACK NORTH OF 1.75" AND
LIKELY GET CLOSE TO 2" AS WE APPROACH THE EVENING HOURS THURS,
BUT CLOUD COVER MAY CAP CAPE VALUES. DYNAMICS ALOFT AREN'T
IMPRESSIVE SO SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE VERY ORGANIZED. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT
REMAIN AROUND THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRI, PROMOTING EVEN GREATER
CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE, AND SUBTLY
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SHEAR AS TROUGH ALOFT OVER CANADA DIGS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW, A FEW ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS
AREN'T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. IN ADDITION TO THIS, ANY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE AN EFFICIENT
RAINMAKER, POTENTIALLY BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND A RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, AND
ADDING TO THE WIND RISK VIA WATERLOADING/DOWNBURSTS. AS SUCH,
SPC CONTINUES THE MARGINAL RISK (LVL 1/5) OF SEVERE TSTORMS AND
WPC CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK (LVL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR TOMORROW WHILE THE FA. RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WHEN
A FRONT PUSHED BY THE DIGGING TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CROSS THE FA FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA SUN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL PRECIP CHANCES
ALONG THE SEABREEZE AS WELL AS RISING TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MID
90S/MID 70S SPLITS AND MAXAPPTS IN EXCESS OF 100DEG FROM TUES ONWARD
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
# --- AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN APPENDED TO EWN TAFS AS THE SITE IS
NOT TRANSMITTING THROUGH NORMAL CHANNELS. THE SITE IS STILL
REPORTING VIA TELEPHONE SO IT WILL BE MONITORED, BUT NOT AS
FREQUENTLY AS WHEN IT IS COMPLETELY OPERATIONAL. THE NEXT
CLOSEST ASOS IS AT CHERRY POINT (KNKT). --- #
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH TWO
POSSIBILITIES FOR SUBVFR IN PLAY, BUT NOT FORECAST TO BE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS. WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR ISO TO
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS PRE-DAWN AS FRONT THAT HAS BEEN
STALLED TO OUR S GETS PULLED NWARD AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS ALONG IT. COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST OFFSHORE AND THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN COAST, POSING A THREAT FOR SUBVFR FLIGHT CATS
OVER COASTAL TAF SITES DUE TO REDUCED VIS. MAINTAINED PROB30
FOR EWN AND OAJ FOR THIS RISK. INLAND, LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES PUT FOG AND OR STRATUS ON THE TABLE, BUT THE BULK OF
00Z GLOBAL AND HIRES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE WORST CASE WOULD BE
MVFR FOR INLAND TERMINALS BRIEFLY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO EVEN INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS, BUT
THE POSSIBILITY IS STILL WORTH MENTIONING, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE FRONT NEARBY
KEEPING IFR OR LOWER IN PLAY SHOULD FOG DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE ISO
FOLLOWED BY PGV.
SHOWERS AND STORM THREAT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH CHANCES INCREASING QUITE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH REMNANTS OF THE FRONT/SFC TROUGHING AND SOUND/SEA BREEZES
PROVIDING THE FOCAL POINT FOR DEVELOPMENT. EXPANDING THE THREAT
TO ALL TAF TERMINALS. LIKE OVERNIGHT, TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS
THE MAIN THREAT BUT A STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE WINDS UP TO
30-35 KT.
OUTLOOK: FRONT REMAINS AROUND THE AREA ON FRI. A SECOND,
STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON BOTH FRI AND SAT, SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE IN NATURE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING ELEVATED CHANCES AT SUB- VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SUN AND BEYOND RESULTING IN
MORE BENIGN FLYING CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SERLY WINDS 5-15KT WHILE SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN
AROUND 2-4 FT. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WILL BE THE INCREASE
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NEWARDS ALONG THE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OFFSHORE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER, WITH
TROUGHING DEVELOPING IN IT'S WAKE ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST. LOCALLY
ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY, AS WELL AS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS,
10-15KT INSIDE, 15-20KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OUTSIDE, PRIMARILY
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS S OF OREGON INLET. GUSTS TO 25KT
OUTSIDE OF STORMS SHOULD BE INFREQUENT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
MARINE HEADLINES ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK: COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ACTS TO WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS IT NEARS THE AREA FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS
FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR WEAKENING WINDS BACK DOWN TO 5-15 KTS. SEAS
MAINTAIN HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 2-4 FT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
WELL. ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FRI INTO SAT
WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. AS WE GET INTO SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST ALLOWING FOR MORE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS AND LOWER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CEB/RCF
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