198
FXUS62 KMHX 272301
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
701 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS ENC. FRIDAY WILL SEE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
2) HEAT INCREASES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND A
REMNANT FRONT DISSIPATING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. STORMS HAVE
REMAINED RELATIVELY WEAK SO FAR WITH WITH MLCAPE AROUND
1500-2000 J/KG DESPITE SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 25-30 KT, SO
THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. KMHX 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWS PWAT OF 2.15" AND COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP. CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCREASES ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING INCREASING JET
DYNAMICS WITH THE ATTENDANT WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE REGION. INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT HIGHER TOMORROW
WITH MLCAPES FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG WITH SIMILAR
SHEAR IN PLACE. PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NORTH OF 2"
BRINGING THE THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND SPC HAS PARTS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC OUTLOOKED IN
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS. GREATER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC FRONT AND OTHER
LINGERING BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BRINGING AN INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND WPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
REGION.
CONTINUED UNSETTLED ON SATURDAY BUT THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA WITH HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND WEAKENING
DYNAMICS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BRINGING A DECREASING THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING LOWER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH NEAR CLIMO CHANCES
FOR STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH PEAK
HEATING EACH DAY. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PEAKING
IN THE MID 90S AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HEAT
HEADLINES POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
# --- AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN APPENDED TO EWN TAFS AS THE SITE IS
NOT TRANSMITTING THROUGH NORMAL CHANNELS. THE SITE IS STILL
REPORTING VIA TELEPHONE SO IT WILL BE MONITORED, BUT NOT AS
FREQUENTLY AS WHEN IT IS COMPLETELY OPERATIONAL. THE NEXT
CLOSEST ASOS IS AT CHERRY POINT (KNKT). --- #
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD (BEST CHANCES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING). THOUGH CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN COULD BRING SUB-VFR
TO PGV/ISO/OAJ THROUGH 02Z. THE PROBS FOR FOG AND STRATUS ARE
FAIRLY LOW GIVEN THE CURRENT PATTERN BUT THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE FOR LOWER CIGS AND SOME REDUCTION IN VSBYS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CONDITIONS AND
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY IS SKIES CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY OVERNIGHT. BETTER
CONVECTIVE CHANCES FRI AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD BRING PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING GUSTY WINDS
AND FREQ LIGHTNING.
OUTLOOK: A SECOND, STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SAT. THIS WILL BRING ELEVATED CHANCES AT SUB- VFR CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SUN AND BEYOND
RESULTING IN MORE BENIGN FLYING CONDITIONS.
MARINE
CURRENTLY SEEING S TO SWRLY WINDS 5-15KT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-3 FT. COULD SEE SOME STRENGTHENING OF
THE WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT NOT ANTICIPATING
CONDITIONS REACHING SCA CRITERIA. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS
BRINGING PERIODS OF LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.
OUTLOOK: COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ACTS TO WEAKEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AS IT NEARS THE AREA FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS
FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR WEAKENING WINDS BACK DOWN TO 5-15 KTS. SEAS
MAINTAIN HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 2-4 FT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
WELL. ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FRI INTO SAT
WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. AS WE GET INTO SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST ALLOWING FOR MORE BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS AND LOWER
CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SK/CEB
AVIATION...CQD/SK/CEB
MARINE...SK/CEB
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