458
FXUS62 KMHX 280949
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
549 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. AVIATION DISCO UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS ENC. TODAY WILL SEE
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
2) HEAT INCREASES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCREASES TODAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING INCREASING JET
DYNAMICS WITH THE ATTENDANT WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE REGION. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO BE A BIT
HIGHER TOMORROW WITH MLCAPES FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 2000-2500
J/KG WITH SIMILAR SHEAR IN PLACE. PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE NORTH OF 2" BRINGING THE THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SPC HAS PARTS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC
OUTLOOKED IN MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS.
GREATER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC FRONT
AND OTHER LINGERING BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL BRINGING AN INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND WPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION.
CONTINUED UNSETTLED ON SATURDAY BUT THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA WITH HEIGHT RISES ALOFT AND WEAKENING
DYNAMICS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BRINGING A DECREASING THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING LOWER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH NEAR CLIMO CHANCES
FOR STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH PEAK
HEATING EACH DAY. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE BUILDING HEAT WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PEAKING
IN THE MID 90S AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HEAT
HEADLINES POSSIBLE WED AND THU WITH MAXAPPT IN THE RANGE OF
105-115DEG POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
# --- AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN APPENDED TO EWN TAFS AS THE SITE IS
NOT TRANSMITTING THROUGH NORMAL CHANNELS. THE SITE IS STILL
REPORTING VIA TELEPHONE SO IT WILL BE MONITORED, BUT NOT AS
FREQUENTLY AS WHEN IT IS COMPLETELY OPERATIONAL. THE NEXT
CLOSEST ASOS IS AT CHERRY POINT (KNKT). --- #
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING PERIODS OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD (BEST
CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING). THE PROBS FOR FOG AND
STRATUS ARE FAIRLY LOW GIVEN THE CURRENT PATTERN BUT THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR LOWER CIGS AND SOME REDUCTION IN
VIS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CONDITIONS
AND TARGETED IFR TEMPO GROUPS AS A PRECAUTION AS LIKELIHOOD IS
LOW. BUT, SHOULD CLEARING OCCUR AS SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT, PROBS OF FOG/STRATUS MAY INCREASE SOME.
06Z TAFS CONTINUES PREVAILING VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH 12Z UPDATE LIKELY TO INCLUDE SOME MORE DETAIL.
SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE ON THE STRONGER
SIDE, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MOST LIKELY, BUT SOME
STRONG GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK: A SECOND, STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SAT. THIS WILL BRING ELEVATED CHANCES AT SUB- VFR CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ON SUN AND BEYOND
RESULTING IN MORE BENIGN FLYING CONDITIONS.
MARINE
CURRENTLY SEEING S TO SWRLY WINDS 5-15KT INSIDE, 10-15G~20KT
OUTSIDE WITH SEAS AROUND 3-4 FT. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING
PERIODS OF LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.
OUTLOOK: ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
SAT WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
STRONGEST STORMS. LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W ALLOWING FOR MORE BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS AND LOWER CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SK/CEB
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...SK/CEB
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