453
FXUS62 KMHX 130813
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
413 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
2) WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH HIGH DRAPED OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE ENVIRONMENT TODAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S. HOWEVER,
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY HIGHER,
WHICH MAY ALLOW A SLIGHTLY IMPROVED STORM ORGANIZATION
POTENTIAL AND PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS
REACHING SEVERE, OR NEAR- SEVERE, LEVELS. THE PRIMARY RISK
SHOULD BE STRONG WINDS, BUT PERHAPS SOME HAIL CAN OCCUR IN THE
TALLEST, MOST SUSTAINED, CORES. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD
BE THE SEABREEZE AND AN INLAND TROUGH. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY
VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY, HELPING KEEP THE SEABREEZE LESS
PROGRESSIVE COMPARED TO TODAY, AND STORMS MAY NOT BE AS
PROGRESSIVE. WITH A HIGH PWAT AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE, THIS COULD
ALLOW A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN THE RISK FOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING, WITH AT LEAST A LOW-END RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEAR TO BE EAST OF HWY 17 CLOSER TO THE
COAST, WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE HIGHEST. FURTHER INLAND WE
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE, REDUCING SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES.
FINALLY, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND ON THE SLOWER SIDE WITH THE
PASSAGE, AND NOW THIS SETS UP THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE HIGHER
(~30KT), AND MAY SUPPORT A STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK
CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING QUICKLY REBUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, A NOTABLY STRONG SURFACE
HIGH WILL NOSE SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
SYNOPTICALLY THIS IS A VERY DRY PATTERN FOR THE REGION. DESPITE
WARMING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES BENEATH THE RIDGE, THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH SHOULD HELP TO HOLD TEMPS
DOWN SOME. ADDITIONALLY, THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER WITH LESS
HUMIDITY, MAKING IT FEEL NOT AS HOT. IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MORE
LIKE FALL, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER SCATTERED SHOWERS, ANOTHER ROUND OF
MVFR TO IFR CIGS APPEARS LIKELY THIS MORNING. FOR NOW, STRATUS
IS FAVORED OVER BR/FG. THE TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AS LOW AS
IFR, ESP WRN TAF SITES. LOW CIG SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND
EVENTUALLY RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 15-16Z.
ANOTHER RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SUN AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH SOME PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, BUT MAIN THREAT IS
HEAVY RAIN.
OUTLOOK (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY): DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN
SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND COLD FRONT, BUT REINFORCING COLD FRONT
BRINGS MORE SHOWERS OR SOME STORMS ON MONDAY, THEN DRY TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MARINE
SOUTH WINDS OF 10-15KT ARE COMMON ACROSS MOST WATERS THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE, SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2-3FT AT 5-7S. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TODAY AS THE OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME AS WELL. WINDS WILL
BECOME WESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND LAY DOWN TO 5- 15KT FOR A
SHORT TIME BEFORE MONDAY'S FRONT BRINGS IN A STRONGER NORTHERLY
SURGE.
OUTLOOK: STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS THEN DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS ALL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE NORTHERLY SURGE OF
WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASED RISK OF
20-30KT WINDS. MARINE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A
PORTION OF THE WATERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE INCREASED
WINDS. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 5-8FT
WITH THE NORTHERLY WIND SURGE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS, AND MARINE
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK FOR THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS FOR 6FT+ SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM/RJ
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...RM/RJ
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