714
FXUS62 KMHX 131809
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
209 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ENC
WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY
2) WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS ENC THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE
AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. DESPITE SOME DRIER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT, THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION SHOULD BE FOCUSED
EAST OF HWY 17 WHERE LOW-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK (~20KT) AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO
MINIMIZE THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ADDITIONALLY, WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW DCAPE SHOULD
LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF GUSTS WITH ANY OF THE TALLER CORES. WITH
NOTABLE PWATS IN PLACE, MODERATE TO HIGH RAINFALL RATES WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. WESTERLY FLOW IN
OPPOSITION OF THE SEABREEZE MAY ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT AREA
TO HAVE MORE RESIDENCE TIME DUE TO A NET MOTION THAT IS VERY
SLOW. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, A LOCALIZED FLOOD RISK MAY DEVELOP.
HOWEVER, WITH DRIER AIR TRYING TO WORK IN ALOFT, CONFIDENCE IN
SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION IS LOWER, AND THE OVERALL FLOOD RISK
APPEARS LOW FOR THE AREA AT LARGE.
ON MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF NC
DURING PEAK HEATING. WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
TEND TO LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE, THERE
SHOULD BE A LOCAL ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL FORCING, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 70. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED, DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS. THE RISK IS
CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL FORCING, BUT SHOULD THIS
OCCUR, A SHORT-LIVED RISK OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THANKS TO ELEVATED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
(~30KT) AND MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE UP TO 1500J/KG).
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE ISN'T ALL THAT EXCITED ABOUT THIS
POTENTIAL, AND THIS LIKELY SPEAKS TO THE CONDITIONALITY OF THE
THREAT. THIS RISK WILL QUICKLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS OFF THE CRYSTAL COAST BY SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TREND STRONGER WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE EXPANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. THIS WEEK. IN FACT, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW FORECASTING
500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 600DM WITH THIS RIDGE, THE STRENGTH OF
WHICH IS VERY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NORMALLY, THIS
WOULD SPELL ANOMALOUS HEAT FOR ENC. HOWEVER, A POCKET OF
"COOLER" THICKNESSES IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CAROLINAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY, THOSE
COOLER THICKNESSES MAY SHIELD ENC FROM THE ANOMALOUS HEAT THAT
OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE. THAT POCKET OF LOWER
THICKNESSES MAY BEGIN TO ERODE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BY THEN. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DIFFER ON
WHEN/IF THIS WILL OCCUR.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ENC THIS AFTERNOON AND, IN
TANDEM WITH THE SEABREEZE, WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF SCT SHRA AND
TSRA. THE GREATEST OVERLAP OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO, AND FOR THIS REASON, I'VE LIMITED THE
TSRA MENTION TO KEWN FOR NOW. ELSEWHERE, THE RISK OF TSRA LOOKS
TO BE LOWER. ALL SHRA AND TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO VIS, BUT THE TSRA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
TO SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THE
AREAS THAT SEE QUICK-MOVING, AND WEAKER, SHRA. A SLIGHTLY DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT MAY LIMIT THE RISK OF LOW CIGS AND VIS.
HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS, RECENT RAINFALL (FOR SOME), AND RESIDUAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY STILL ALLOW PERIODS OF REDUCED VIS IN
MIFG.
ANOTHER RISK OF SCT TSRA IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH ENC. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG,
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OF 40KT+. THIS RISK IS CONTINGENT ON
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT, AND A BUMP UP IN WINDS, IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25KT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE HIGH SHOULD ALSO KEEP
A LID ON THE TSRA POTENTIAL.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15KT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THAT TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA WATERS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH THE WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY, AND LAYING DOWN TO
5-10KT. NORTHERLY WINDS THEN QUICKLY BUILD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR 25KT
WINDS WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY SURGE OF WIND, AND
MARINE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A RISK FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. BY TONIGHT, THAT RISK IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS ALONG THE GULF STREAM. ON MONDAY, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHWARD-
ADVANCING COLD FRONT, BUT THIS RISK SHOULD QUICKLY END BY
SUNSET.
OUTLOOK: AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
LAY DOWN BELOW 25KT, BUT ELEVATED SEAS MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE CONTRA FLOW AGAINST THE GULF
STREAM WATERS. FOR THE NEAR-SHORE COASTAL WATERS, THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MID-WEEK DEPENDING
ON HOW LONG THE ELEVATED SEAS LAST.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RM
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...RM
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