137
FXUS62 KMHX 140758
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
358 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED THE NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
2) WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF
NC DURING PEAK HEATING TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE DEVELOPING
SEABREEZE, THERE SHOULD BE A LOCAL ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL
FORCING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 70. THIS IS THE AREA
WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED, DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS. THE
RISK IS CONDITIONAL ON SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL FORCING, BUT SHOULD
THIS OCCUR, A SHORT-LIVED RISK OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THANKS TO ELEVATED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
(~35KT) AND MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE UP TO 1500J/KG).
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE ISN'T ALL THAT EXCITED ABOUT THIS
POTENTIAL, AND THIS LIKELY SPEAKS TO THE CONDITIONALITY OF THE
THREAT. THIS RISK WILL QUICKLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS OFF THE CRYSTAL COAST BY SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TREND STRONGER WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE EXPANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. THIS WEEK. IN FACT, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW FORECASTING
500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 600DM WITH THIS RIDGE, THE STRENGTH OF
WHICH IS VERY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NORMALLY, THIS
WOULD SPELL ANOMALOUS HEAT FOR ENC. HOWEVER, A POCKET OF
"COOLER" THICKNESSES IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CAROLINAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE DRY, THOSE
COOLER THICKNESSES MAY SHIELD ENC FROM THE ANOMALOUS HEAT THAT
OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE. THAT POCKET OF LOWER
THICKNESSES MAY BEGIN TO ERODE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BY THEN. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DIFFER ON
WHEN/IF THIS WILL OCCUR.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A SLIGHTLY DRIER WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING
BRINGING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS RTES, HOWEVER SHALLOW FOG
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ALBEMARLE-PAMLICO PENINSULA
WHERE HEAVIER RAIN FELL YESTERDAY AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS FAR
SOUTHERN RTES, INCLUDING OAJ WHERE VSBYS ARE OCCASIONALLY
DROPPING TO IFR. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
A RISK OF SCT TSRA IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH ENC, WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ALONG THE COAST AND HAVE ADDED PROB30 TO THE
COASTAL TAF SITES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG, CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OF 40KT+.
THIS RISK IS CONTINGENT ON SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. A NERLY WIND SHIFT, AND A BUMP UP IN
WINDS, IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
20-25KT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK (MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI): HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THE HIGH SHOULD ALSO KEEP A LID ON PRECIP THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK.
MARINE
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH A NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE
AROUND 15-25 KT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED THE NEUSE AND BAY RIVERS TO THE SCA.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5-8 FT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE GULF STREAM. WAVE GUIDANCE IS TYPICALLY
UNDERDONE IN NE FLOW AND MANUALLY ADJUSTED SEAS UP 1-2 FT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
OUTLOOK: AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
LAY DOWN BELOW 25KT, BUT ELEVATED SEAS MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE CONTRA FLOW AGAINST THE GULF
STREAM WATERS. FOR THE NEAR-SHORE COASTAL WATERS, THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MID-WEEK DEPENDING
ON HOW LONG THE ELEVATED SEAS LAST.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...RM/SK
AVIATION...RM/SK/TL
MARINE...RM/SK
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