065
FXUS62 KMHX 141801
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
201 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
2) WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM NEAR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS
THIS AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TEND TO
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AS
THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE, THERE SHOULD BE A
LOCAL ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL FORCING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HWY 70. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SUSTAINED, DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS. THE RISK IS CONDITIONAL ON
SUFFICIENT LOW- LEVEL FORCING, BUT SHOULD THIS OCCUR, A SHORT-
LIVED RISK OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP THANKS TO ELEVATED DEEP LAYER SHEAR (~35KT) AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY (MLCAPE UP TO 1500J/KG). MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
ISN'T ALL THAT EXCITED ABOUT THIS POTENTIAL, AND THIS LIKELY
SPEAKS TO THE CONDITIONALITY OF THE THREAT. THIS RISK WILL
QUICKLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFF THE
CRYSTAL COAST BY SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TREND STRONGER WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE EXPANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
U.S. THIS WEEK. IN FACT, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW FORECASTING
500MB HEIGHTS AROUND 600DM WITH THIS RIDGE, THE STRENGTH OF
WHICH IS VERY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NORMALLY, THIS
WOULD SPELL ANOMALOUS HEAT FOR ENC. HOWEVER, A POCKET OF
"COOLER" THICKNESSES IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CAROLINAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST-FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY,
THOSE COOLER THICKNESSES MAY SHIELD ENC FROM THE ANOMALOUS HEAT
THAT OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTH WILL EXPERIENCE. THAT POCKET OF
LOWER THICKNESSES MAY BEGIN TO ERODE BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BY THEN. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DIFFER ON
WHEN/IF THIS WILL OCCUR.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A RISK OF SCT
TSRA IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA, WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
ALONG THE COAST AND WILL CONTINUE PROB30 TO THE COASTAL TAF
SITES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME STRONG, CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OF 40KT+. THIS RISK IS
CONTINGENT ON SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT. A NERLY WIND SHIFT, AND A BUMP UP IN WINDS, IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 15-25KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK (TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT): HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THE HIGH SHOULD ALSO LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH LATE
WEEK.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW NE-NW WINDS 5-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. N-NE WINDS WILL SURGE TO 15-25 KT
BEHIND THE FRONT, PEAKING THIS EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SCAS CONTINUE FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS, SOUNDS AND THE NEUSE/BAY RVRS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO AROUND 5-8 FT LATE TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM. WAVE GUIDANCE IS TYPICALLY UNDERDONE IN NE FLOW AND
MANUALLY ADJUSTED SEAS UP 1-2 FT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
OUTLOOK (TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT): AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAY DOWN BELOW 25KT, BUT
ELEVATED SEAS MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH
THE CONTRA FLOW AGAINST THE GULF STREAM WATERS. FOR THE NEAR-
SHORE COASTAL WATERS, ELEVATED SEAS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
MID-WEEK. LIGHTER WINDS FRI AND SAT WITH SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ158.
DISCUSSION...CQD/SK
AVIATION...CQD/SK
MARINE...CQD/SK
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