284
FXUS62 KMHX 150726
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
326 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUNDS AND RIVERS. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE END TIMES OF THE SCA FOR THE NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ENC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER,
UPPER LOW RETROGRADING TO THE SSW ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE GULF
STREAM, BUT DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS LAND
AREAS. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK BRINGING
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS THROUGH,
THEN WILL SEE GRADUALLY WARMING AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SLIDES
OFFSHORE ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AND BRIEFLY STALL BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. SFC CONVERGENCE AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES OVER THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY THROUGH PEAK HEATING WHEN INSTABILITY IS
GREATEST.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD BRINGING PRED VFR CONDITIONS. NE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KT POSSIBLE MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHEN DEEPER MIXING ENSUES. SUFFICENT
MIXING AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING, BUT LIGHT/CALM WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT INLAND.
OUTLOOK (WED THROUGH SAT): HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP.
MARINE
CURRENT BUOY OBS SHOW NE WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 15-20 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR
THE GULF STREAM, WHILE SEAS ARE AROUND 4-6 FT. WINDS ARE JUST
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW SCA CRITERIA
FOR THE SOUNDS AND RIVER AND HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA FOR THESE
ZONES. SEAS HAVE NOT BUILT AS HIGH AS EXPECTED BUT ARE SEEING
SEAS UP TO 6 FT IN MOST ZONES AND WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR THE
NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, DID SHORTEN THE END TIMES AS
GUIDANCE HAS SEAS DROPPING BELOW CRITERIA AROUND MID DAY TODAY
FOR ALL ZONES EXCEPT THE CENTRAL WATERS WHERE GUIDANCE KEEPS
SEAS UP TO 6 FT INTO WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK (WED THROUGH SAT): NE WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS
CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY, THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VEER TO SE
THEN S ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WEAKENS.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
BRIEFLY STALL BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS. LINGERING 6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY LATE WEDNESDAY, IF NOT
SOONER. SEAS AROUND 3-5 FT CONTINUES THURSDAY, THEN SUBSIDES TO
2-4 FT FRIDAY INTO SATUDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ156-158.
DISCUSSION...SK
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...SK
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