535
FXUS62 KMHX 151808
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
208 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DROPPED THE LAST SCA IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. INTRODUCED
MINOR PATCHY FOG TO INLAND GRIDS IN EARLY MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW. UPDATED AVIATION DISCO.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ENC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER,
UPPER LOW RETROGRADING TO THE SSW ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE GULF
STREAM, BUT DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS LAND
AREAS. GUSTY NEERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET
WHEN THEY WILL BEGIN TO EASE. NE FLOW REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS, THEN WILL SEE GRADUALLY WARMING
AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND SLIDES OFFSHORE ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AND BRIEFLY STALL BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. SFC CONVERGENCE AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES OVER THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY THROUGH PEAK HEATING WHEN
INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD BRINGING PRED VFR CONDITIONS. NE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WHEN DEEPER MIXING ENSUES UNTIL
A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT/CALM WINDS TONIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT INLAND. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO MVFR
GROUPS FOR ISO/PGV, BUT CAN NEVER REALLY COUNT OUT OAJ
COMPLETELY. VFR IS EXPECTED WED WITH LIGHTER NEERLY WINDS THAN
TODAY AND FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU AROUND FL040. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GO LIGHT TO CALM OVER A GREATER AREA WED NIGHT, UPPING THE
CHANCES FOR FOG ACROSS ALL TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK (WED THROUGH SAT): HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP.
MARINE
CURRENT BUOY OBS SHOW NE WINDS GENERALLY 10-15KT INSIDE, 15-20KT
WITH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OUTSIDE. SEAS GENERALLY
3-4FT@7-8SEC PREDOMINANT PERIODS SAVE FOR CRYSTAL COAST
NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE CHOPPIER CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT. HAVE
DROPPED LAST REMAINING SCA FOR CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS WITH
DIAMOND SHOALS SHOWING SEAS FALLING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST.
OUTLOOK (WED THROUGH SAT): NE WINDS AROUND 15 KT OR LESS
CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY, THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VEER TO SE
THEN S ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WEAKENS.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND
BRIEFLY STALL BRINGING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE
WATERS. LINGERING 6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY LATE WEDNESDAY, IF NOT
SOONER. SEAS AROUND 3-5 FT CONTINUES THURSDAY, THEN SUBSIDES TO
2-4 FT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CEB
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CEB
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