664
FXUS62 KMHX 162331
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
731 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE CLIMO LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ENC THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LOW RETROGRADING
TO THE SSW ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM, BUT DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS LAND AREAS. NE FLOW REGIME REMAINS
IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK BRINGING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
COMFORTABLE DEWPOINT/HUMIDITY LEVELS, THEN WILL SEE GRADUALLY
WARMING AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SLIDES OFFSHORE ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
VEER TO SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SFC CONVERGENCE AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES OVER THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS ACRS NRN HALF OF THE FA, WITH BEST
CHANCES N OF HWY 264 FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS INTO SRN PORTIONS OF ENC SAT, WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS FOR SRN AREAS ON SAT. FCST A BIT
MORE MUDDLED BEYOND SAT, THOUGH POPS REMAIN IN THE 30-50% RANGE
AS ABOVE CLIMO PW'S WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY RESIDING ACRS THE SERN CONUS. TEMPS RISE TO ABOVE CLIMO
ONCE AGAIN FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY QUIET, LOW-
IMPACT AVIATION CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER,
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT A LOW RISK (10-30% CHANCE) OF REDUCED VIS
DUE TO MIFG. THIS IS NOT SHOWN IN THE TAFS DUE TO THE LOW
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. ON THURSDAY, THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY, AND A WEAK SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP WITH A SLIGHT BUMP UP IN WINDS AT KMRH, AND POTENTIALLY
AS FAR INLAND AS KOAJ AND KEWN.
OUTLOOK (THU NIGHT THROUGH MON): HIGH PRESSURE CONT TO DOMINATE
WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA AS EARLY AS FRI
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM, WHICH WILL CONT
THE THREAT FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
LATEST OBS SHOW NE-ENE WINDS 5-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT NEARSHORE
AND 3-6 FT OFFSHORE. LIGHT TO MODERATE NE-ENE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY VEERING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT.
OUTLOOK (THU NIGHT THROUGH MON): FLOW WILL VEER TO SE THEN S
LATER THU INTO EARLY FRI AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. A
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE NRN WATERS ON FRI, BRINGING WINDS
AROUND BACK TO THE NORTH AGAIN FROM N TO S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT CLEARS THE SRN WATERS BY LATER FRI NIGHT
WITH NNERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO INC A BIT INTO THE 10-20 KT RANGE.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA HOWEVER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CQD/TL
AVIATION...RM/TL
MARINE...CQD/TL
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