586
FXUS62 KMHX 172308
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
708 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. INTRODUCED PARAGRAPH ON POTENTIAL COASTAL
CONCERNS MID NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH A WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE CLIMO LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK.
2) OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ENC THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE
IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION AS WEAK SYNOPTIC FLOW PROVIDES
LESS RESISTANCE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. WE HAVE
WARMED UP TO THE UPPER 80S INLAND, LOW 80S FOR BEACHES WITH
TEMPS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP AROUND SUNSET. ONE MORE NIGHT IN
THE 60S FOR TONIGHT BEFORE TD'S SURGE MORE ON FRIDAY AS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND
SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING HOURS. TROUGH BRINGS
LIGHT NW WINDS BEHIND IT BRIEFLY, BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MORE NE WINDS AND PRECIP CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. SFC CONVERGENCE AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES OVER THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
STORMS ACRS NRN HALF OF THE FA, WITH BEST CHANCES N OF HWY 264
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. FRONT SLOWLY SAGS INTO SRN PORTIONS
OF ENC SAT, WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SRN AREAS ON SAT. FCST A BIT MORE MUDDLED BEYOND SAT AS IT WILL
DEPEND ON THE FRONT LOCATION. TEMPS RISE TO ABOVE CLIMO ONCE
AGAIN FRI INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEXT WEEK, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION SHIFTS EAST, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST AS IT PUSHES AGAINST A NON-TROPICAL LOW
FORMING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL LIKELY USHER IN STRONGER NE WINDS TO THE
REGION. GIVEN IT IS 5-6 DAYS OUT, THERE IS A MARGIN FOR ERROR,
BUT FOR NOW THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON HIGHER WAVES AND
ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS MID- NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON, AS A LONG FETCH OF STRONG WINDS
COULD BRING HIGHER WAVE ENERGY TOWARDS VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF
THE OUTER BANKS. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE SPECIFICS AT THIS
POINT AND TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS AS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL BUT
SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE. IMPACTFUL FOG IS IMPROBABLE TONIGHT
GIVEN VERY LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR, BUT SOME SHALLOW NUISANCE GROUND
FOG IS POSSIBLE BRIEFLY AROUND DAWN. WEAK TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW OFFERING A CHANCE OF A BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWER AND A
WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KT.
OUTLOOK (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY): A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM, WHICH WILL
CONT THE THREAT FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
LIGHT BREEZE CONT LESS THAN 10 KT, VEERING SERLY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING SSWRLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SEAS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, GENERALLY 2-3 FT NEARSHORE,
WITH 4 FT SETS OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY): A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
NRN WATERS FRIDAY PM, BRINGING WINDS AROUND BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AGAIN FOR NRN SOUNDS AND WATERS N OF OREGON INLET. THE
FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH NERLY WINDS
EXPECTED TO INC A BIT INTO THE 10-20 KT RANGE FOR ALL WATERS AND
SOUNDS BY SAT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA HOWEVER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY WINDS VEER TO SRLY BY LATE DAY, THEN
BECOME NWERLY BEHIND YET ANOTHER FROPA ON MONDAY, THOUGH SPEEDS
REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE SUN INTO MON WITH SEAS
2-4 FT. NE WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TUESDAY PM AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WE ARE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH TO
OUR NORTH AND A NON-TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TL/RJ
AVIATION...MS/RJ
MARINE...TL/RJ
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