824
FXUS62 KMHX 180700
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED NE WINDS A BIT FOR SAT.
UPDATED 18/06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE TODAY INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.
2) OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
3) INCREASED MARINE IMPACTS MID WEEK AS HIGH WAVES AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS IMPACT THE OBX.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ENC THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ONE LAST
MORNING IN THE 60S BEFORE TD'S SURGE MORE ON FRIDAY AS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH AS HIGH PRES CONT TO
MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE. WARM AND HUMID WILL CONT THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PW'S RISE BACK ABOVE CLIMO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND TROUGH
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH ENC THROUGH SAT. SFC
CONVERGENCE AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES
OVER THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS LATE
TODAY, AND ESP THIS EVENING. FRONT SLOWLY SAGS INTO SRN
PORTIONS OF ENC SAT, WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISO
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SRN AREAS ON SAT. FCST A BIT MORE MUDDLED
BEYOND SAT AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE FRONT LOCATION, BUT AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS TYPICAL SEABREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 3...NEXT WEEK, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BECOMES ANCHORED ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND ERN CANADA, WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST,
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY USHER IN STRONGER NE WINDS TO THE
REGION. GIVEN IT IS 5-6 DAYS OUT, THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY, WITH THE 18/00Z GFS/ECMWF A BIT WEAKER WITH THIS
SOLUTION, WHILE THE AIFS CONT TO INDICATE A STRONGER SYSTEM. FOR
NOW THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON AT LEAST HIGHER WAVES
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS MID- NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE WORTH KEEPING
AN EYE ON, AS A LONG FETCH OF STRONG WINDS COULD BRING HIGHER
WAVE ENERGY TOWARDS VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS. IT
IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT AND TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR MAINLY SKC THROUGH THIS MORNING. INC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND ESP THIS EVENING, WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING AFTER AROUND 6PM, WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR WRN TERMINALS. LATER TAF FCSTS MAY INCLUDE PRECIP
MENTION TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK (SAT THROUGH TUE): A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH
SOUTH ON SAT, WHICH MAY CONT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
IT, WITH BEST CHANCES SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ENC. HIGHER MOISTURE
LINGERS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES IN
PLAY AND THUS OCNL SUB VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
RETURN SSWRLY BREEZES WITH SPEEDS OF 5-10 KT, OCNL HIGHER GUSTS.
THESE SWRLY WINDS CONT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SEAS
REMAINING 2-3FT NEARSHORE, WITH 4 FT SETS OFFSHORE. COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND SOUNDS LATE TODAY,
THEN SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT BUT
SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHT (5-15 KT)
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY):THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG
OR SOUTH OF THE CRYSTAL COAST ON SAT WITH WINDS PICKING UP A BIT
MORE BEHIND IT IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE FOR ALL WATERS AND SOUNDS
BY SAT WITH SEA INC 3-5 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SCA HOWEVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY WINDS VEER TO SRLY BY
LATE DAY, THEN BECOME NWERLY BEHIND YET ANOTHER FROPA ON MONDAY,
THOUGH SPEEDS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE SUN INTO
MON WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. NE WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TUESDAY
PM OR WED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WE ARE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A NON- TROPICAL LOW
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TL/RJ
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...TL/RJ
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