105
FXUS62 KMHX 190004
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
804 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.
2) OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
3) INCREASED MARINE IMPACTS MID WEEK AS HIGH WAVES AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS IMPACT THE OBX.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH ARE KEEPING ENC DRY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. POPS INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND ALONG A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
WARM AND HUMID WILL CONT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
PW'S RISE BACK ABOVE CLIMO.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO AND THROUGH ENC THROUGH SAT. SFC CONVERGENCE AND
LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES OVER THE UPPER
RIDGE ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS LATE TODAY, AND ESP
THIS EVENING. FRONT SLOWLY SAGS INTO SRN PORTIONS OF ENC SAT,
WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS FOR SRN
AREAS ON SAT. FCST A BIT MORE MUDDLED BEYOND SAT AS IT WILL
DEPEND ON THE FRONT LOCATION, BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
TYPICAL SEABREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 3...NEXT WEEK, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BECOMES ANCHORED ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND ERN CANADA, WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST,
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY USHER IN STRONGER NE WINDS TO THE
REGION. GIVEN IT IS 4-6 DAYS OUT, THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY, AS BOTH WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION IS DEPENDENT ON
THE PLACEMENT, STRENGTH, AND TIMING OF THE LOW. FOR NOW THERE
IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON AT LEAST HIGHER WAVES 8+ FT AT 8+
SEC ALONG THE OUTER BANKS MID- NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE WORTH
KEEPING AN EYE ON, AS A LONG FETCH OF STRONG WINDS COULD BRING
HIGHER WAVE ENERGY TOWARDS VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF THE OUTER
BANKS. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT AND
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CURRENTLY VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH A WEAKENING
BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MIGRATING SOUTHWARD
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM ROUGHLY GOLDSBORO SOUTH TO
WILMINGTON AND WEAKER SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF EWN. ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING
WHILE PRIMARY FRONT GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
PROBABILITIES OF OVERNIGHT STRATUS CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER A DEVELOPING FRONTAL INVERSION. AS IS COMMON IN NE FLOW
EVENTS, EXPECT STRATUS SHIELD TO BUILD FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR AROUND DAWN. MVFR CIGS WILL
BE SLOW TO LIFT TOMORROW WITH RELATIVELY WEAK MIXING AND LOW-
LEVELS REMAINING SATURATED, AND SOME SITES MAY NOT BREAK BACK TO
VFR UNTIL AROUND 17-18Z TOMORROW. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT
RETURNS TOMORROW, THIS TIME FAVORING AREAS FROM EWN SOUTH ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT.
OUTLOOK (SAT THROUGH TUE): HIGHER MOISTURE LINGERS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES IN PLAY AND THUS OCNL SUB
VFR CONDITIONS. POTENTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT
WEEK WITH A RISK OF PROLONGED SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NE
TO E WINDS.
MARINE
RETURN SSWRLY BREEZES WITH SPEEDS OF 5-10 KT, OCNL HIGHER GUSTS
FOR MOST WATERS. SEAS REMAINING 2-3FT NEARSHORE, WITH 4 FT SETS
OFFSHORE. A TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION RIGHT NOW, WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF IT. THE COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NRN
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND SOUNDS LATE TODAY, THEN SINKS SOUTH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND STALLING ACROSS
SENC/NESC SATURDAY. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT, NE WIND GUSTS 15-20
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR WATERS. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A FEW INFREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY, BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS NOT DEEMED NECESSARY
WITH THIS UPDATE. WITH THIS INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 3-5 FT.
OUTLOOK (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY WINDS VEER TO SRLY BY
LATE DAY, THEN BECOME NWERLY BEHIND YET ANOTHER FROPA ON MONDAY,
THOUGH SPEEDS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 KT RANGE SUN INTO
MON WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. NE WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TUESDAY
PM OR WED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS WE ARE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A NON- TROPICAL LOW
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TL/RJ
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...TL/RJ
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