230
FXUS62 KMHX 191900
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN TODAY AND SUNDAY. THUNDER
CHANCES DECREASED WEDNESDAY ONWARDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY THIS WEEKEND, THEN PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) INCREASED MARINE IMPACTS MID WEEK AS HIGH WAVES AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS IMPACT THE OBX AND ADJACENT WATERS AND
SOUNDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD FRONT IS SITTING WELL OFFSHORE, WITH DEEP
LAYER NERLY FLOW SETTLING INTO THE MAJORITY OF ENC. HAVE
CONTINUED DECREASING POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND FOR
TOMORROW. BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACRS THE FAR SWRN ZONES
TODAY, WHERE THIS AREA HAS A 20-30% CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
SHOWERS. HIGH PRES IN CONTROL FOR SUNDAY MEANS A DRIER FCST ON
TAP. NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES MON AND TUE AS YET
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHWARD.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NEXT WEEK, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BECOMES ANCHORED ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND ERN CANADA, WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST,
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE MID- ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LIKELY USHER IN STRONGER NE WINDS TO THE
REGION. GIVEN IT IS 4-6 DAYS OUT, THERE IS STILL MUCH
UNCERTAINTY, AS BOTH WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION IS DEPENDENT ON
THE PLACEMENT, STRENGTH, AND TIMING OF THE LOW. FOR NOW THERE IS
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON AT LEAST HIGHER WAVES 8+ FT AT 8+ SEC
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS MID- NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE WORTH KEEPING
AN EYE ON, AS A LONG FETCH OF STRONG WINDS COULD BRING HIGHER
WAVE ENERGY TOWARDS VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF THE OUTER BANKS. IT
IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT AND TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY FORECAST FOR TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS
RIGHT NOW, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AS LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND
RETURN TO VFR WITH THE SEA BREEZE PINNED TO THE COAST AS THE
COLD FRONT STILL SITS TO OUR SOUTH.
OUTLOOK (SUN THROUGH WED): FOG POTENTIAL EXISTS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS IN MON AND TUE
WITH A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER AND RAIN CHANCES. THIS AND
THE POTENTIAL COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK WITH A
RISK OF PROLONGED SUB- VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NE WINDS.
MARINE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH, NE WINDS OF 15+ KT
DEVELOPED TODAY WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KT PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER AND
SEAS WILL TOP OUT AT 3-5 FT THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
WITH SOME 6 FOOTERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF STREAM 20+ MILES
OFFSHORE. AS NE WINDS DECREASE SUNDAY PM, SEAS LESSEN TO 2-4 FT.
OUTLOOK (SUN THROUGH WED):WINDS BECOME NWERLY BEHIND YET
ANOTHER FROPA ON MONDAY, THOUGH SPEEDS REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE
5-15 KT RANGE SUN INTO MON WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. NE WINDS AND SEAS
BEGIN TO BUILD TUESDAY PM OR WED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AS WE ARE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND A
NON- TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR NERLY GALES BY WED THOUGH STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
CLOSE AND STRONG THE OFFSHORE LOW PRES BECOMES. WHAT IS MORE
CERTAIN IS A LONG DURATION OF DANGEROUS SEAS OF 8-10+ FT
DEVELOPING BY MID WEEK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TL/RJ
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...TL/RJ
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